Above-average 2026 tornado activity through early August, with roughly 1,107 confirmed reports already logged, positions the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. An unusually active spring and early summer, featuring record or near-record counts in Illinois (over 220) and Indiana, has driven totals well ahead of the long-term U.S. annual average of approximately 1,200. Typical July–August contributions of 200 tornadoes, plus residual fall activity, make exceeding 1,250 the most probable path under current conditions. Official NOAA and Storm Prediction Center data show no major shift in steering patterns or instability parameters that would sharply curtail remaining-season formation, though model consensus on late-summer convective trends remains the key near-term variable traders are monitoring.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 87%
1200–1249 6.8%
1150–1199 6.2%
1100–1149 4.3%
$81,648 ปริมาณ
$81,648 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
87%
1250+ 87%
1200–1249 6.8%
1150–1199 6.2%
1100–1149 4.3%
$81,648 ปริมาณ
$81,648 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 ปริมาณ
1%
950–999
$3,618 ปริมาณ
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 ปริมาณ
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 ปริมาณ
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 ปริมาณ
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 ปริมาณ
6%
1200–1249
$15,917 ปริมาณ
7%
1250+
$18,440 ปริมาณ
87%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Above-average 2026 tornado activity through early August, with roughly 1,107 confirmed reports already logged, positions the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. An unusually active spring and early summer, featuring record or near-record counts in Illinois (over 220) and Indiana, has driven totals well ahead of the long-term U.S. annual average of approximately 1,200. Typical July–August contributions of 200 tornadoes, plus residual fall activity, make exceeding 1,250 the most probable path under current conditions. Official NOAA and Storm Prediction Center data show no major shift in steering patterns or instability parameters that would sharply curtail remaining-season formation, though model consensus on late-summer convective trends remains the key near-term variable traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$81,648วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 10, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Above-average 2026 tornado activity through early August, with roughly 1,107 confirmed reports already logged, positions the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. An unusually active spring and early summer, featuring record or near-record counts in Illinois (over 220) and Indiana, has driven totals well ahead of the long-term U.S. annual average of approximately 1,200. Typical July–August contributions of 200 tornadoes, plus residual fall activity, make exceeding 1,250 the most probable path under current conditions. Official NOAA and Storm Prediction Center data show no major shift in steering patterns or instability parameters that would sharply curtail remaining-season formation, though model consensus on late-summer convective trends remains the key near-term variable traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$81,648วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 10, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average 2026 tornado activity through early August, with roughly 1,107 confirmed reports already logged, positions the 1,250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. An unusually active spring and early summer, featuring record or near-record counts in Illinois (over 220) and Indiana, has driven totals well ahead of the long-term U.S. annual average of approximately 1,200. Typical July–August contributions of 200 tornadoes, plus residual fall activity, make exceeding 1,250 the most probable path under current conditions. Official NOAA and Storm Prediction Center data show no major shift in steering patterns or instability parameters that would sharply curtail remaining-season formation, though model consensus on late-summer convective trends remains the key near-term variable traders are monitoring.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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