Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability that no new pandemic will emerge before 2028, driven by the lack of sustained human-to-human transmission in monitored threats. The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced thousands of cases and deaths since early 2026, prompting a WHO public health emergency declaration, yet remains regionally contained without efficient respiratory spread. Avian influenza strains like H5N1 show mammal spillover but no confirmed sustained chains, while global surveillance networks rapidly detect events such as Nipah or hantavirus clusters. Official assessments from WHO and CDC highlight rising spillover risks from climate and land-use factors, yet note that RNA viruses require specific convergence of traits rarely observed in short windows, supporting market consensus on low near-term probability absent major model shifts.