Walt Disney's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings release, scheduled for today before the market open, underpins the market's 100% implied probability that results will exceed consensus estimates of $1.88 per share on $25.40 billion in revenue. Strong historical performance, including EPS beats in each of the prior four quarters averaging 6.81%, combined with stable analyst forecasts and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS growth guidance of about 12%, has driven this near-certain trader consensus backed by real capital. Segment momentum in theme parks and streaming profitability improvements further support expectations. While tail risks such as an unforeseen revenue shortfall or cautious forward commentary could still emerge, the consistent track record and limited estimate volatility leave little room for a miss in the current setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>99% chance
$17,040 Vol.
$17,040 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
>99% chance
$17,040 Vol.
$17,040 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
As of market creation, Walt Disney is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Walt Disney’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.86 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walt Disney reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.86 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Walt Disney releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Walt Disney's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings release, scheduled for today before the market open, underpins the market's 100% implied probability that results will exceed consensus estimates of $1.88 per share on $25.40 billion in revenue. Strong historical performance, including EPS beats in each of the prior four quarters averaging 6.81%, combined with stable analyst forecasts and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS growth guidance of about 12%, has driven this near-certain trader consensus backed by real capital. Segment momentum in theme parks and streaming profitability improvements further support expectations. While tail risks such as an unforeseen revenue shortfall or cautious forward commentary could still emerge, the consistent track record and limited estimate volatility leave little room for a miss in the current setup.
As of market creation, Walt Disney is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Walt Disney’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.86 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walt Disney reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.86 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Walt Disney releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Walt Disney releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 PM ET
Volume
$17,040End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
As of market creation, Walt Disney is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Walt Disney’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.86 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walt Disney reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.86 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Walt Disney releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Walt Disney's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings release, scheduled for today before the market open, underpins the market's 100% implied probability that results will exceed consensus estimates of $1.88 per share on $25.40 billion in revenue. Strong historical performance, including EPS beats in each of the prior four quarters averaging 6.81%, combined with stable analyst forecasts and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS growth guidance of about 12%, has driven this near-certain trader consensus backed by real capital. Segment momentum in theme parks and streaming profitability improvements further support expectations. While tail risks such as an unforeseen revenue shortfall or cautious forward commentary could still emerge, the consistent track record and limited estimate volatility leave little room for a miss in the current setup.
As of market creation, Walt Disney is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Walt Disney’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.86 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walt Disney reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.86 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Walt Disney releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Walt Disney releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$17,040End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Walt Disney's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings release, scheduled for today before the market open, underpins the market's 100% implied probability that results will exceed consensus estimates of $1.88 per share on $25.40 billion in revenue. Strong historical performance, including EPS beats in each of the prior four quarters averaging 6.81%, combined with stable analyst forecasts and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS growth guidance of about 12%, has driven this near-certain trader consensus backed by real capital. Segment momentum in theme parks and streaming profitability improvements further support expectations. While tail risks such as an unforeseen revenue shortfall or cautious forward commentary could still emerge, the consistent track record and limited estimate volatility leave little room for a miss in the current setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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