Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by March 31, reflecting the State Department's ongoing maintenance of limited operations despite Level 4 travel advisories for Lebanon amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Recent weeks have seen no major escalations—such as ground invasions, direct embassy threats, or diplomatic breakdowns—forcing a non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO), with the U.S. instead authorizing voluntary departures for non-essential personnel since October 2024. Historical patterns show embassies rarely close absent imminent peril, bolstering 98%+ "No" pricing as the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden airstrikes, refugee surges, or Lebanese government collapse prompting rapid reassessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$134,621 Объем
$134,621 Объем
Да
$134,621 Объем
$134,621 Объем
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by March 31, reflecting the State Department's ongoing maintenance of limited operations despite Level 4 travel advisories for Lebanon amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Recent weeks have seen no major escalations—such as ground invasions, direct embassy threats, or diplomatic breakdowns—forcing a non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO), with the U.S. instead authorizing voluntary departures for non-essential personnel since October 2024. Historical patterns show embassies rarely close absent imminent peril, bolstering 98%+ "No" pricing as the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden airstrikes, refugee surges, or Lebanese government collapse prompting rapid reassessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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