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Экономика·Мексика

Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?

Market icon
Экономика·Мексика

Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?

апр. 30

апр. 30

0,5-1,0% 43%

1,0–1,5% 31%

0,0–0,5% 18.1%

<0,0% 16.4%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

0,5-1,0% 43%

1,0–1,5% 31%

0,0–0,5% 18.1%

<0,0% 16.4%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

<0,0%

$384 Объем

11%

0,0–0,5%

$327 Объем

18%

0,5-1,0%

$458 Объем

43%

1,0–1,5%

$627 Объем

31%

1,5-2,0%

$285 Объем

11%

2,0-2,5%

$119 Объем

11%

>2,5%

$127 Объем

3%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% range at a leading 44.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-year indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Banco de México interest rates near 10% and softening U.S. demand risks under USMCA uncertainties. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in months—dragging primary and secondary sectors, while March S&P Global PMIs signaled ongoing manufacturing contraction at 48.9 and non-manufacturing at 49.0. Despite full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.3-1.8% from Banxico and OECD, Q1 momentum remains subdued; February IGAE data due April 20 and preliminary GDP could catalyze shifts.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,328
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% range at a leading 44.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-year indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Banco de México interest rates near 10% and softening U.S. demand risks under USMCA uncertainties. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in months—dragging primary and secondary sectors, while March S&P Global PMIs signaled ongoing manufacturing contraction at 48.9 and non-manufacturing at 49.0. Despite full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.3-1.8% from Banxico and OECD, Q1 momentum remains subdued; February IGAE data due April 20 and preliminary GDP could catalyze shifts.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$2,328
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «0,5-1,0%» с 43%, за ним следует «1,0–1,5%» с 31%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 43¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 43%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jan 31, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?» — «0,5-1,0%» с 43%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 43%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1,0–1,5%» с 31%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Рост ВВП Мексики в 1 квартале 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.