Trader consensus on Polymarket favors arrests of Juan Pablo Ledezma (56%) and Juan Reyes Mejía González (54%), with others like Ricardo Ruiz Velasco (53%) close behind, driven by intensified US-Mexico cooperation since President Trump's inauguration. The February 22 Mexican military raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho—backed by US intelligence—demonstrated operational momentum, alongside January extraditions of dozens of cartel figures and February 26 State Department $10 million bounties for Sinaloa plaza bosses. No listed leaders have been arrested through late March, but DEA seizures and joint task forces signal sustained pressure through year-end, potentially tipping contested outcomes amid factional infighting and border security priorities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?
Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?
$0.00 Объем
Feb 28, 2026
Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар
17%
Хесус Альфредо Гусман Саласар
18%
Рикардо Руис Веласко
53%
Аудиас Флорес-Сильва
27%
Уго Гонсало Мендоса Гайтана
39%
Хуан Карлос Валенсия Гонсалес
23%
Хуан Рейес Мехия Гонсалес
54%
Хуан Пабло Ледесма
56%
$0.00 Объем
Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар
$0 Объем
17%
Хесус Альфредо Гусман Саласар
$0 Объем
18%
Рикардо Руис Веласко
$0 Объем
53%
Аудиас Флорес-Сильва
$0 Объем
27%
Уго Гонсало Мендоса Гайтана
$0 Объем
39%
Хуан Карлос Валенсия Гонсалес
$0 Объем
23%
Хуан Рейес Мехия Гонсалес
$0 Объем
54%
Хуан Пабло Ледесма
$0 Объем
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors arrests of Juan Pablo Ledezma (56%) and Juan Reyes Mejía González (54%), with others like Ricardo Ruiz Velasco (53%) close behind, driven by intensified US-Mexico cooperation since President Trump's inauguration. The February 22 Mexican military raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho—backed by US intelligence—demonstrated operational momentum, alongside January extraditions of dozens of cartel figures and February 26 State Department $10 million bounties for Sinaloa plaza bosses. No listed leaders have been arrested through late March, but DEA seizures and joint task forces signal sustained pressure through year-end, potentially tipping contested outcomes amid factional infighting and border security priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Feb 28, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors arrests of Juan Pablo Ledezma (56%) and Juan Reyes Mejía González (54%), with others like Ricardo Ruiz Velasco (53%) close behind, driven by intensified US-Mexico cooperation since President Trump's inauguration. The February 22 Mexican military raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho—backed by US intelligence—demonstrated operational momentum, alongside January extraditions of dozens of cartel figures and February 26 State Department $10 million bounties for Sinaloa plaza bosses. No listed leaders have been arrested through late March, but DEA seizures and joint task forces signal sustained pressure through year-end, potentially tipping contested outcomes amid factional infighting and border security priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Feb 28, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors arrests of Juan Pablo Ledezma (56%) and Juan Reyes Mejía González (54%), with others like Ricardo Ruiz Velasco (53%) close behind, driven by intensified US-Mexico cooperation since President Trump's inauguration. The February 22 Mexican military raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho—backed by US intelligence—demonstrated operational momentum, alongside January extraditions of dozens of cartel figures and February 26 State Department $10 million bounties for Sinaloa plaza bosses. No listed leaders have been arrested through late March, but DEA seizures and joint task forces signal sustained pressure through year-end, potentially tipping contested outcomes amid factional infighting and border security priorities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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