Recent independent polls, including 21 Research and Závecz Research from late March into early April, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling speculation of an opposition upset. However, Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 first-past-the-post constituencies plus 93 proportional list seats—combined with Fidesz's rural strongholds, alleged gerrymandering, and a large undecided voter bloc (up to 20–30% in some surveys), renders a 133-seat constitutional supermajority unlikely. Government-aligned polls still favor Fidesz, underscoring discrepancies that anchor trader consensus at 75.5% against TISZA achieving two-thirds control of the 199-seat National Assembly.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 апр. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 апр. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent independent polls, including 21 Research and Závecz Research from late March into early April, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling speculation of an opposition upset. However, Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 first-past-the-post constituencies plus 93 proportional list seats—combined with Fidesz's rural strongholds, alleged gerrymandering, and a large undecided voter bloc (up to 20–30% in some surveys), renders a 133-seat constitutional supermajority unlikely. Government-aligned polls still favor Fidesz, underscoring discrepancies that anchor trader consensus at 75.5% against TISZA achieving two-thirds control of the 199-seat National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$6,960Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent independent polls, including 21 Research and Závecz Research from late March into early April, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling speculation of an opposition upset. However, Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 first-past-the-post constituencies plus 93 proportional list seats—combined with Fidesz's rural strongholds, alleged gerrymandering, and a large undecided voter bloc (up to 20–30% in some surveys), renders a 133-seat constitutional supermajority unlikely. Government-aligned polls still favor Fidesz, underscoring discrepancies that anchor trader consensus at 75.5% against TISZA achieving two-thirds control of the 199-seat National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Объем
$6,960Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent independent polls, including 21 Research and Závecz Research from late March into early April, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling speculation of an opposition upset. However, Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 first-past-the-post constituencies plus 93 proportional list seats—combined with Fidesz's rural strongholds, alleged gerrymandering, and a large undecided voter bloc (up to 20–30% in some surveys), renders a 133-seat constitutional supermajority unlikely. Government-aligned polls still favor Fidesz, underscoring discrepancies that anchor trader consensus at 75.5% against TISZA achieving two-thirds control of the 199-seat National Assembly.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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