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Политика·Мадьяр

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

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Политика·Мадьяр

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

25% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
25% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent opinion polls for Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election show a divided picture, with independent pollster Medián reporting TISZA leading Fidesz by 23 points (58%-35%) among decided voters as of late March, while pro-government surveys like Publicus and Závecz indicate Fidesz ahead by 9-13 points. Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring the rural Fidesz base plus 93 proportional list seats—makes a constitutional two-thirds majority (133 of 199 seats) improbable for TISZA even with a national vote lead, as surplus votes bolster incumbents. Large undecided shares (up to 25%) and Fidesz's historical overperformance sustain trader consensus at 75.5% "No," prioritizing structural barriers over opposition momentum ahead of the vote.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Объем
$6,404
Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent opinion polls for Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election show a divided picture, with independent pollster Medián reporting TISZA leading Fidesz by 23 points (58%-35%) among decided voters as of late March, while pro-government surveys like Publicus and Závecz indicate Fidesz ahead by 9-13 points. Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring the rural Fidesz base plus 93 proportional list seats—makes a constitutional two-thirds majority (133 of 199 seats) improbable for TISZA even with a national vote lead, as surplus votes bolster incumbents. Large undecided shares (up to 25%) and Fidesz's historical overperformance sustain trader consensus at 75.5% "No," prioritizing structural barriers over opposition momentum ahead of the vote.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Объем
$6,404
Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 25% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 25¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 25%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 31, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущая вероятность для «Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?» составляет 25% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 25%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.