Market icon
Eleições·MTG

A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?

Market icon
Eleições·MTG

A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?

Sim

14% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

14% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability against a female 2028 Republican presidential nominee, driven by early polling and straw polls favoring male frontrunners like Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A late March 2026 New Hampshire survey—the nation's first primary state—placed Vance and Rubio atop the field among likely Republican primary voters, echoing February polls where Vance led with 59% support. This aligns with the GOP's historical precedent of never nominating a woman for president, as seen in Nikki Haley's early 2024 exit despite initial viability. No female contender, including governors like Sarah Huckabee Sanders or Kristi Noem, has gained comparable traction amid Trump administration alumni dominating speculation, though 2026 midterms could shift dynamics ahead of the 2028 convention.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$473
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability against a female 2028 Republican presidential nominee, driven by early polling and straw polls favoring male frontrunners like Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A late March 2026 New Hampshire survey—the nation's first primary state—placed Vance and Rubio atop the field among likely Republican primary voters, echoing February polls where Vance led with 59% support. This aligns with the GOP's historical precedent of never nominating a woman for president, as seen in Nikki Haley's early 2024 exit despite initial viability. No female contender, including governors like Sarah Huckabee Sanders or Kristi Noem, has gained comparable traction amid Trump administration alumni dominating speculation, though 2026 midterms could shift dynamics ahead of the 2028 convention.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$473
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A indicada presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?" is "A indicada presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A candidata presidencial republicana de 2028 será uma mulher?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.