Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2-3 inches of precipitation at Central Park (36.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for April 2026, closely tracking the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's equal-chance outlook for above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall across the Northeast, against a climatological average of 3.6 inches. A dry start with just 0.16 inches through April 2—below the expected early-month pace—has tempered expectations for higher bins, while the ongoing transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions supports average frontal activity without extremes. Dynamical models like CFSv2 indicate moderate totals, with upcoming 8-14 day and week 3-4 precipitation outlooks due this week likely to influence further trading.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPrecipitation in NYC in April?
Precipitation in NYC in April?
3-4" 29%
2-3" 26%
<2" 22.5%
4-5" 15%
<2"
23%
2-3"
36%
3-4"
23%
4-5"
15%
5-6"
4%
>15 cm
7%
3-4" 29%
2-3" 26%
<2" 22.5%
4-5" 15%
<2"
23%
2-3"
36%
3-4"
23%
4-5"
15%
5-6"
4%
>15 cm
7%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2-3 inches of precipitation at Central Park (36.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for April 2026, closely tracking the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's equal-chance outlook for above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall across the Northeast, against a climatological average of 3.6 inches. A dry start with just 0.16 inches through April 2—below the expected early-month pace—has tempered expectations for higher bins, while the ongoing transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions supports average frontal activity without extremes. Dynamical models like CFSv2 indicate moderate totals, with upcoming 8-14 day and week 3-4 precipitation outlooks due this week likely to influence further trading.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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