Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs "Yes" at 98.5% implied probability for "Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition," reflecting skepticism that Elon Musk will open-source Grok-3 by December 31, 2024, absent any confirmed announcements or roadmap updates from xAI. In the past week, Musk focused on Tesla's robotaxi event and political commentary via social media, with no mentions of Grok source code—despite his March 2024 precedent of releasing Grok-1 weights months post-launch and vague promises for future models. Grok-3 training on the world's largest GPU cluster is slated to wrap by December's end, but model release and open-sourcing typically lag, leaving scant time for an upset. A realistic wildcard: an impulsive Musk tweet committing to immediate release, though historical delays in AI promises temper such expectations. Watch xAI updates closely as the deadline nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNada Nunca Acontece: Edição Elon
Nada Nunca Acontece: Edição Elon
Sim
$83,608 Vol.
$83,608 Vol.
Sim
$83,608 Vol.
$83,608 Vol.
- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Dec 22, 2025, 7:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs "Yes" at 98.5% implied probability for "Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition," reflecting skepticism that Elon Musk will open-source Grok-3 by December 31, 2024, absent any confirmed announcements or roadmap updates from xAI. In the past week, Musk focused on Tesla's robotaxi event and political commentary via social media, with no mentions of Grok source code—despite his March 2024 precedent of releasing Grok-1 weights months post-launch and vague promises for future models. Grok-3 training on the world's largest GPU cluster is slated to wrap by December's end, but model release and open-sourcing typically lag, leaving scant time for an upset. A realistic wildcard: an impulsive Musk tweet committing to immediate release, though historical delays in AI promises temper such expectations. Watch xAI updates closely as the deadline nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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