Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects pre-season uncertainty for the 2026 NL Manager of the Year, with Walt Weiss, Terry Francona, Clayton McCullough, Carlos Mendoza, Don Kelly, Dave Roberts, Torey Lovullo, Craig Counsell, Warren Schaeffer, Pat Murphy, Rob Thomson, Craig Stammen, Blake Butera, Tony Vitello, and Oliver Marmol all sharing identical 43.5% implied probabilities amid a crowded field reshaped by last fall's hiring spree. Pat Murphy enters as defending back-to-back winner after guiding the Brewers to contention despite key departures, while Counsell eyes a Cubs breakout and Roberts leverages Dodgers' star power; new faces like Butera (Nationals) and Weiss (Braves) draw bets on fresh momentum exceeding low preseason win totals. Historical BBWAA patterns favor overachievers on surprise playoff teams, but parity across NL contenders like Mets, Phillies, and Pirates keeps odds deadlocked—early April results from Opening Day will spark the first shifts as rotations solidify and injuries emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWalt Weiss 44%
Terry Francona 44%
Clayton McCullough 44%
Don Kelly 44%
Walt Weiss
44%
Terry Francona
44%
Clayton McCullough
44%
Don Kelly
44%
Dave Roberts
44%
Torey Lovullo
44%
Craig Counsell
44%
Warren Schaeffer
44%
Pat Murphy
44%
Rob Thomson
44%
Craig Stammen
44%
Blake Butera
44%
Tony Vitello
44%
Oliver Marmol
44%
Carlos Mendoza
44%
Walt Weiss 44%
Terry Francona 44%
Clayton McCullough 44%
Don Kelly 44%
Walt Weiss
44%
Terry Francona
44%
Clayton McCullough
44%
Don Kelly
44%
Dave Roberts
44%
Torey Lovullo
44%
Craig Counsell
44%
Warren Schaeffer
44%
Pat Murphy
44%
Rob Thomson
44%
Craig Stammen
44%
Blake Butera
44%
Tony Vitello
44%
Oliver Marmol
44%
Carlos Mendoza
44%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects pre-season uncertainty for the 2026 NL Manager of the Year, with Walt Weiss, Terry Francona, Clayton McCullough, Carlos Mendoza, Don Kelly, Dave Roberts, Torey Lovullo, Craig Counsell, Warren Schaeffer, Pat Murphy, Rob Thomson, Craig Stammen, Blake Butera, Tony Vitello, and Oliver Marmol all sharing identical 43.5% implied probabilities amid a crowded field reshaped by last fall's hiring spree. Pat Murphy enters as defending back-to-back winner after guiding the Brewers to contention despite key departures, while Counsell eyes a Cubs breakout and Roberts leverages Dodgers' star power; new faces like Butera (Nationals) and Weiss (Braves) draw bets on fresh momentum exceeding low preseason win totals. Historical BBWAA patterns favor overachievers on surprise playoff teams, but parity across NL contenders like Mets, Phillies, and Pirates keeps odds deadlocked—early April results from Opening Day will spark the first shifts as rotations solidify and injuries emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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