Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on March nonfarm payrolls exceeding 100,000, reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official report of a 178,000 job gain—nearly triple consensus economist estimates around 60,000. This robust rebound from February's revised 133,000 decline underscores labor market resilience, with private payrolls surging 186,000 and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3% amid softer participation. Strong gains in sectors like leisure, healthcare, and construction drove the upside, alleviating recession fears. While headline figures rarely reverse, potential benchmark revisions in upcoming months represent the sole realistic challenge to this consensus. Traders now eye next week's CPI data for inflation signals ahead of the May FOMC meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQuantos empregos foram adicionados em março?
Quantos empregos foram adicionados em março?
100 mil+ 100.0%
<-150k <1%
-150 mil – -100 mil <1%
-100k – -50k <1%
$46,160 Vol.
$46,160 Vol.
<-150k
Não
-150 mil – -100 mil
Não
-100k – -50k
Não
-50k – 0
Não
0 – 50 mil
Não
50 mil – 100 mil
Não
100 mil+
Sim
100 mil+ 100.0%
<-150k <1%
-150 mil – -100 mil <1%
-100k – -50k <1%
$46,160 Vol.
$46,160 Vol.
<-150k
Não
-150 mil – -100 mil
Não
-100k – -50k
Não
-50k – 0
Não
0 – 50 mil
Não
50 mil – 100 mil
Não
100 mil+
Sim
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on March nonfarm payrolls exceeding 100,000, reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official report of a 178,000 job gain—nearly triple consensus economist estimates around 60,000. This robust rebound from February's revised 133,000 decline underscores labor market resilience, with private payrolls surging 186,000 and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3% amid softer participation. Strong gains in sectors like leisure, healthcare, and construction drove the upside, alleviating recession fears. While headline figures rarely reverse, potential benchmark revisions in upcoming months represent the sole realistic challenge to this consensus. Traders now eye next week's CPI data for inflation signals ahead of the May FOMC meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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