Mercedes' early-season dominance with George Russell's Australia Grand Prix victory and Kimi Antonelli's back-to-back China and Japan triumphs has fueled a surge in highlight-reel overtakes under 2026's battery management rules, enabling frequent position swaps like the 120 passes at Albert Park. Max Verstappen edges trader consensus at 27.5% implied probability thanks to his bold outside move on rookie Arvid Lindblad in Melbourne, but Lewis Hamilton's daring middle-sector dive on Russell in China, Antonelli's high-speed 130R pass on Lando Norris at Suzuka, Russell's pole-defending starts, and Charles Leclerc's aggressive outside attacks on Mercedes keep probabilities tightly bunched between 18-20%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a regulation-driven action fest with 21 Grands Prix remaining for new contenders to emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoKimi Antonelli 30%
Lewis Hamilton 30%
Max Verstappen 28%
George Russell 19%
Kimi Antonelli
19%
Lewis Hamilton
20%
Max Verstappen
28%
George Russell
19%
Charles Leclerc
19%
Oscar Piastri
18%
Liam Lawson
14%
Fernando Alonso
10%
Alexander Albon
4%
Lando Norris
4%
Gabriel Bortoleto
2%
Arvid Lindblad
2%
Oliver Bearman
2%
Isack Hadjar
2%
Nico Hulkenberg
2%
Esteban Ocon
2%
Carlos Sainz
2%
Pierre Gasly
2%
Valtteri Bottas
1%
Franco Colapinto
1%
Sergio Perez
1%
Lance Stroll
1%
Kimi Antonelli 30%
Lewis Hamilton 30%
Max Verstappen 28%
George Russell 19%
Kimi Antonelli
19%
Lewis Hamilton
20%
Max Verstappen
28%
George Russell
19%
Charles Leclerc
19%
Oscar Piastri
18%
Liam Lawson
14%
Fernando Alonso
10%
Alexander Albon
4%
Lando Norris
4%
Gabriel Bortoleto
2%
Arvid Lindblad
2%
Oliver Bearman
2%
Isack Hadjar
2%
Nico Hulkenberg
2%
Esteban Ocon
2%
Carlos Sainz
2%
Pierre Gasly
2%
Valtteri Bottas
1%
Franco Colapinto
1%
Sergio Perez
1%
Lance Stroll
1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Formula 1 season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 10, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Formula 1 season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' early-season dominance with George Russell's Australia Grand Prix victory and Kimi Antonelli's back-to-back China and Japan triumphs has fueled a surge in highlight-reel overtakes under 2026's battery management rules, enabling frequent position swaps like the 120 passes at Albert Park. Max Verstappen edges trader consensus at 27.5% implied probability thanks to his bold outside move on rookie Arvid Lindblad in Melbourne, but Lewis Hamilton's daring middle-sector dive on Russell in China, Antonelli's high-speed 130R pass on Lando Norris at Suzuka, Russell's pole-defending starts, and Charles Leclerc's aggressive outside attacks on Mercedes keep probabilities tightly bunched between 18-20%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a regulation-driven action fest with 21 Grands Prix remaining for new contenders to emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions