Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and a youthful squad blending Euro 2024 winners like Rodri and Pedri with breakout stars such as Lamine Yamal, maintaining peak form into March friendlies. The race stays tight among Europe and South America's elite, with England (13%) buoyed by Harry Kane's scoring streak and balanced depth, France (11%) sharpened by a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil highlighting Kylian Mbappé's threat, and Argentina (10%) leaning on Lionel Messi's leadership despite an aging core post-Copa América retention. Brazil (9%) lags amid transitional woes, while the expanded 48-team format, advanced group stage progression, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico heighten upset potential in knockouts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$422,964,418 Vol.
$422,964,418 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$422,964,418 Vol.
$422,964,418 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and a youthful squad blending Euro 2024 winners like Rodri and Pedri with breakout stars such as Lamine Yamal, maintaining peak form into March friendlies. The race stays tight among Europe and South America's elite, with England (13%) buoyed by Harry Kane's scoring streak and balanced depth, France (11%) sharpened by a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil highlighting Kylian Mbappé's threat, and Argentina (10%) leaning on Lionel Messi's leadership despite an aging core post-Copa América retention. Brazil (9%) lags amid transitional woes, while the expanded 48-team format, advanced group stage progression, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico heighten upset potential in knockouts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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