Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, seamless qualification campaign, and top billing in recent power rankings alongside France, reflecting sustained attacking flair from Yamal and Williams. The tight clustering among England (12.8%), France (11.1%), Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) underscores a parity-driven market, with all securing direct UEFA and CONMEBOL berths unscathed amid the March playoff window that saw surprises like Sweden ousting Ukraine and Poland edging Albania. No major injuries or form slumps in the past 30 days amplify uncertainty in the expanded 48-team draw, where top seeds are insulated until semifinals, enabling realistic paths for multiple contenders amid group stage volatility and cross-confederation depth.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$423,661,388 Vol.
$423,661,388 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$423,661,388 Vol.
$423,661,388 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, seamless qualification campaign, and top billing in recent power rankings alongside France, reflecting sustained attacking flair from Yamal and Williams. The tight clustering among England (12.8%), France (11.1%), Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) underscores a parity-driven market, with all securing direct UEFA and CONMEBOL berths unscathed amid the March playoff window that saw surprises like Sweden ousting Ukraine and Poland edging Albania. No major injuries or form slumps in the past 30 days amplify uncertainty in the expanded 48-team draw, where top seeds are insulated until semifinals, enabling realistic paths for multiple contenders amid group stage volatility and cross-confederation depth.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions