Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their gritty UEFA playoff qualification on penalties over the Netherlands (2-2 aggregate, 5-4 in shootout on March 23) following a dominant 4-0 group win against Bulgaria earlier in the window, reinforcing their Euro 2024 pedigree and young stars like Lamine Yamal. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and Argentina (10.1%) trail closely amid recent March internationals showcasing parity, with no dominant performances separating the elite; France's Kylian Mbappé looms as golden boot favorite, while Lionel Messi's experience bolsters defending champions Argentina despite age concerns. Brazil (8.6%) and others benefit from depth and favorable group draws from December's tournament reveal, but ongoing club form, injuries, and the expanded 48-team format heighten upset risks, keeping the top tightly bunched.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 10.9%
Argentina 10.1%
$397,147,806 Vol.
$397,147,806 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Uruguai
1%
Japão
1%
Croácia
1%
México
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
Gana
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 10.9%
Argentina 10.1%
$397,147,806 Vol.
$397,147,806 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Uruguai
1%
Japão
1%
Croácia
1%
México
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
Gana
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their gritty UEFA playoff qualification on penalties over the Netherlands (2-2 aggregate, 5-4 in shootout on March 23) following a dominant 4-0 group win against Bulgaria earlier in the window, reinforcing their Euro 2024 pedigree and young stars like Lamine Yamal. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and Argentina (10.1%) trail closely amid recent March internationals showcasing parity, with no dominant performances separating the elite; France's Kylian Mbappé looms as golden boot favorite, while Lionel Messi's experience bolsters defending champions Argentina despite age concerns. Brazil (8.6%) and others benefit from depth and favorable group draws from December's tournament reveal, but ongoing club form, injuries, and the expanded 48-team format heighten upset risks, keeping the top tightly bunched.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions