Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$425,261,420 Vol.
$425,261,420 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Ganhe 4%
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Gana
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$425,261,420 Vol.
$425,261,420 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Ganhe 4%
Espanha
$5,572,343 Vol.
16%
Inglaterra
$6,545,179 Vol.
13%
França
$4,207,531 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$6,701,979 Vol.
10%
Brasil
$6,394,454 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$8,036,155 Vol.
7%
Alemanha
$6,714,328 Vol.
5%
Holanda
$8,960,453 Vol.
3%
Noruega
$7,416,800 Vol.
3%
Itália
$7,689,257 Vol.
2%
Bélgica
$7,434,254 Vol.
2%
Colômbia
$7,030,843 Vol.
2%
EUA
$4,646,690 Vol.
2%
Marrocos
$8,760,248 Vol.
2%
Japão
$8,567,958 Vol.
1%
Uruguai
$7,380,834 Vol.
1%
México
$6,668,553 Vol.
1%
Croácia
$7,846,023 Vol.
1%
Suíça
$8,120,601 Vol.
1%
Equador
$8,741,502 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$8,090,835 Vol.
1%
Canadá
$11,380,557 Vol.
1%
Áustria
$10,024,012 Vol.
1%
Coreia do Sul
$13,130,021 Vol.
<1%
Paraguai
$11,360,957 Vol.
<1%
Costa do Marfim
$8,685,003 Vol.
<1%
Austrália
$8,062,800 Vol.
<1%
Gana
$9,681,307 Vol.
<1%
Argélia
$10,214,531 Vol.
<1%
Escócia
$10,829,409 Vol.
<1%
Tunísia
$10,790,874 Vol.
<1%
Arábia Saudita
$17,253,742 Vol.
<1%
Egito
$10,092,210 Vol.
<1%
Nova Zelândia
$15,758,381 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$12,166,893 Vol.
<1%
Jordânia
$16,171,814 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$19,588,444 Vol.
<1%
Irã
$11,228,322 Vol.
<1%
Uzbequistão
$26,540,139 Vol.
<1%
África do Sul
$19,126,704 Vol.
<1%
Cabo Verde
$10,174,098 Vol.
<1%
Catar
$11,229,423 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$425,261,420Data de Término
Jul 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$425,261,420Data de Término
Jul 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions