Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, top FIFA ranking, and early UEFA qualification lock-in via dominant group play. France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil three days ago—Mbappé's opener and Ekitiké's strike holding firm despite Upamecano's red card—bolstered their 11% standing, underscoring depth amid tune-up tests. England (13%), defending champions Argentina (10%), and Brazil (9%) cluster tightly behind, fueled by elite squads, star power like Bellingham, Messi, and Vinícius Júnior, and favorable December group draws in the expanded 48-team format that heightens knockout volatility and upset risks across North American venues.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,107,233 Vol.
$427,107,233 Vol.

Espanha
16%

Inglaterra
13%

França
11%

Argentina
10%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Itália
2%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Japão
1%

Uruguai
1%

México
1%

Croácia
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Egito
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Irã
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,107,233 Vol.
$427,107,233 Vol.

Espanha
16%

Inglaterra
13%

França
11%

Argentina
10%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Itália
2%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Japão
1%

Uruguai
1%

México
1%

Croácia
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Egito
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Irã
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, top FIFA ranking, and early UEFA qualification lock-in via dominant group play. France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil three days ago—Mbappé's opener and Ekitiké's strike holding firm despite Upamecano's red card—bolstered their 11% standing, underscoring depth amid tune-up tests. England (13%), defending champions Argentina (10%), and Brazil (9%) cluster tightly behind, fueled by elite squads, star power like Bellingham, Messi, and Vinícius Júnior, and favorable December group draws in the expanded 48-team format that heightens knockout volatility and upset risks across North American venues.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions