johnthek

Entrou dez 2024·10 visualizações

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Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

No 94¢

1,000.0 quotas

94¢

96.6¢

$965.50$25.50 (2.71%)

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

No 94¢

1,000.0 quotas

$965.50$25.50 (2.71%)

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 92¢

1,000.0 quotas

92¢

95.9¢

$958.50$38.50 (4.18%)

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 92¢

1,000.0 quotas

$958.50$38.50 (4.18%)

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

No 82¢

186.6 quotas

82¢

94.5¢

$176.37$23.33 (15.24%)

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

No 82¢

186.6 quotas

$176.37$23.33 (15.24%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 52.9¢

187.0 quotas

52.9¢

58.5¢

$109.41$10.53 (10.65%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 52.9¢

187.0 quotas

$109.41$10.53 (10.65%)

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?

Yes 51.7¢

131.2 quotas

51.7¢

59.5¢

$78.04$10.27 (15.16%)

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?

Yes 51.7¢

131.2 quotas

$78.04$10.27 (15.16%)

Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?

No 90.2¢

52.7 quotas

90.2¢

91.6¢

$48.26$0.71 (1.5%)

Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?

No 90.2¢

52.7 quotas

$48.26$0.71 (1.5%)

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Yes 26.4¢

188.2 quotas

26.4¢

21.5¢

$40.46-$9.27 (-18.65%)

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Yes 26.4¢

188.2 quotas

$40.46-$9.27 (-18.65%)

Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?

No 54.7¢

51.3 quotas

54.7¢

78.5¢

$40.27$12.20 (43.48%)

Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?

No 54.7¢

51.3 quotas

$40.27$12.20 (43.48%)

Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 19¢

219.2 quotas

19¢

16¢

$35.07-$6.57 (-15.79%)

Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 19¢

219.2 quotas

$35.07-$6.57 (-15.79%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Yes 16.7¢

184.6 quotas

16.7¢

18.5¢

$34.15$3.39 (11%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Yes 16.7¢

184.6 quotas

$34.15$3.39 (11%)

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

Yes 54.6¢

52.5 quotas

54.6¢

60.5¢

$31.74$3.09 (10.79%)

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

Yes 54.6¢

52.5 quotas

$31.74$3.09 (10.79%)

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

No 51¢

44.9 quotas

51¢

66.5¢

$29.86$6.96 (30.39%)

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

No 51¢

44.9 quotas

$29.86$6.96 (30.39%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Yes 63.9¢

40.9 quotas

63.9¢

72.5¢

$29.65$3.53 (13.52%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Yes 63.9¢

40.9 quotas

$29.65$3.53 (13.52%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Yes 74.6¢

34.5 quotas

74.6¢

81.5¢

$28.12$2.39 (9.28%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Yes 74.6¢

34.5 quotas

$28.12$2.39 (9.28%)

Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Yes 47¢

46.3 quotas

47¢

51¢

$23.62$1.85 (8.51%)

Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Yes 47¢

46.3 quotas

$23.62$1.85 (8.51%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?

Yes 29¢

24.6 quotas

29¢

75.5¢

$18.58$11.44 (160.34%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?

Yes 29¢

24.6 quotas

$18.58$11.44 (160.34%)

$icon for Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?$

Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?

Yes 44.4¢

33.0 quotas

44.4¢

54.5¢

$17.98$3.34 (22.84%)

$icon for Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?$

Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?

Yes 44.4¢

33.0 quotas

$17.98$3.34 (22.84%)

Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?

No 82.9¢

19.4 quotas

82.9¢

92.4¢

$17.88$1.83 (11.4%)

Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?

No 82.9¢

19.4 quotas

$17.88$1.83 (11.4%)

Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 52¢

42.3 quotas

52¢

40.5¢

$17.14-$4.88 (-22.16%)

Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 52¢

42.3 quotas

$17.14-$4.88 (-22.16%)

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes 25.7¢

254.0 quotas

25.7¢

6.6¢

$16.76-$48.52 (-74.32%)

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes 25.7¢

254.0 quotas

$16.76-$48.52 (-74.32%)