Recent polling averages and forecasts for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District show a competitive contest leaning toward Democrat Rebecca Cooke over incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden ahead of the November 3 general election. Multiple Democratic-sponsored surveys from spring and summer 2026 placed Cooke ahead by 1–4 points among likely voters, supporting models that assign her roughly two-thirds probability of victory in a race rated a toss-up by major forecasters. The August primaries confirmed both nominees, setting up a rematch of their narrow 2024 matchup. Campaign activity has centered on local economic concerns including data-center development, healthcare access, and federal spending, with the candidates scheduled for their first joint forum on October 20. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these indicators of a slight Democratic edge in the battleground district.