**Rebecca Cooke holds a strong edge in the Wisconsin 3rd congressional district race, a rematch against incumbent Derrick Van Orden on November 3.** Recent polling averages show Cooke ahead by 2–4 points, with models rating the seat as a toss-up or slight Democratic lean after Van Orden’s narrow 2024 victory. Key factors include the district’s competitive nature—Trump carried it by a slim margin while Van Orden underperformed—Cooke’s fundraising and rural outreach on affordability and economic pressures, and Van Orden’s efforts to link the contest to the national Republican agenda. Forecast models assign Cooke a 64–84% win probability, aligning with trader consensus that positions her as the clear favorite in this battleground seat.