Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's strong reelection prospects in California's 23rd Congressional District drive trader consensus to 85.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting his 60% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, dominant fundraising with $1.45 million cash on hand as of late March, and the district's Republican lean where Donald Trump won 58% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features fragmented Democratic challengers—Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis—with minimal funds, unlikely to advance over Obernolte despite new maps from Proposition 50 redistricting. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a major scandal or primary upset before the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-23 House Election Winner
CA-23 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
14%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,090 Wol.
86%
Democratic Party
$2,338 Wol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's strong reelection prospects in California's 23rd Congressional District drive trader consensus to 85.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting his 60% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, dominant fundraising with $1.45 million cash on hand as of late March, and the district's Republican lean where Donald Trump won 58% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features fragmented Democratic challengers—Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis—with minimal funds, unlikely to advance over Obernolte despite new maps from Proposition 50 redistricting. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a major scandal or primary upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$9,428Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's strong reelection prospects in California's 23rd Congressional District drive trader consensus to 85.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting his 60% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, dominant fundraising with $1.45 million cash on hand as of late March, and the district's Republican lean where Donald Trump won 58% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features fragmented Democratic challengers—Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis—with minimal funds, unlikely to advance over Obernolte despite new maps from Proposition 50 redistricting. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a major scandal or primary upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$9,428Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's strong reelection prospects in California's 23rd Congressional District drive trader consensus to 85.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting his 60% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, dominant fundraising with $1.45 million cash on hand as of late March, and the district's Republican lean where Donald Trump won 58% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features fragmented Democratic challengers—Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis—with minimal funds, unlikely to advance over Obernolte despite new maps from Proposition 50 redistricting. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a major scandal or primary upset before the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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