Incumbent Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) dominates trader sentiment in California's 23rd Congressional District House race, with Republicans at 85.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+8 Cook PVI, Obernolte's 60-point 2024 victory margin, and his $1.45 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded Democratic challengers like Tessa Lynn Hodge and Pat Wallis. Recent boosts include Obernolte's April election as House Republican Policy Committee chair and California GOP endorsement, amid ballots now mailed for the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a national wave or scandal, with general election resolution November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-23 House Election Winner
CA-23 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
14%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,190 Wol.
86%
Democratic Party
$2,591 Wol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) dominates trader sentiment in California's 23rd Congressional District House race, with Republicans at 85.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+8 Cook PVI, Obernolte's 60-point 2024 victory margin, and his $1.45 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded Democratic challengers like Tessa Lynn Hodge and Pat Wallis. Recent boosts include Obernolte's April election as House Republican Policy Committee chair and California GOP endorsement, amid ballots now mailed for the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a national wave or scandal, with general election resolution November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$9,781Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) dominates trader sentiment in California's 23rd Congressional District House race, with Republicans at 85.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+8 Cook PVI, Obernolte's 60-point 2024 victory margin, and his $1.45 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded Democratic challengers like Tessa Lynn Hodge and Pat Wallis. Recent boosts include Obernolte's April election as House Republican Policy Committee chair and California GOP endorsement, amid ballots now mailed for the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a national wave or scandal, with general election resolution November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$9,781Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) dominates trader sentiment in California's 23rd Congressional District House race, with Republicans at 85.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+8 Cook PVI, Obernolte's 60-point 2024 victory margin, and his $1.45 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded Democratic challengers like Tessa Lynn Hodge and Pat Wallis. Recent boosts include Obernolte's April election as House Republican Policy Committee chair and California GOP endorsement, amid ballots now mailed for the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore limited paths for Democrats absent a national wave or scandal, with general election resolution November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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