A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
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"Makerfield by-election Winner" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 7 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Andy Burnham" z 100%, za nim "Simon Finkelstein" z 0%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 100¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Makerfield by-election Winner" wygenerował $8.8 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku May 14, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Makerfield by-election Winner", przeglądaj 7 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "Makerfield by-election Winner" jest "Andy Burnham" z 100%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Simon Finkelstein" z 0%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Makerfield by-election Winner" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Makerfield by-election Winner". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $8.8 million wolumenu na "Makerfield by-election Winner", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Makerfield by-election Winner", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 100¢ za "Andy Burnham" na rynku "Makerfield by-election Winner" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 100% szansy na to, że "Andy Burnham" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 100¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 0¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "Makerfield by-election Winner" został rozstrzygnięty. Ostateczny wynik został ustalony i rynek nie jest już otwarty do handlu. Możesz nadal przeglądać historyczne kursy, prawdopodobieństwa wyników i komentarze na tej stronie, aby zobaczyć, jak ewoluowały prognozy.
Rynek "Makerfield by-election Winner" ma aktywną społeczność z 170 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na czym pozycjonują się największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Makerfield by-election Winner". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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