Mary Peltola’s entry into the 2026 Alaska Senate race has positioned her as the leading candidate against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, with traders assigning her a 58.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research show her holding narrow leads of five to seven points in head-to-head matchups, reflecting her strong early fundraising of nearly $9 million in the first quarter compared to Sullivan’s roughly $2 million. The state’s jungle primary on August 18 and ranked-choice voting in the November general election add uncertainty to the outcome, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, cash reserves, and alignment with major resource projects. Minor candidates remain negligible factors at this stage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAlaska Senate Election Winner
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$325,919 Wol.
$325,919 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mary Peltola
59%
Dan Sullivan
42%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$325,919 Wol.
$325,919 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mary Peltola
$159,296 Wol.
59%
Dan Sullivan
$90,101 Wol.
42%
Dustin Darden
$21,626 Wol.
<1%
Ann Diener
$34,047 Wol.
<1%
Richard Grayson
$20,849 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Mary Peltola’s entry into the 2026 Alaska Senate race has positioned her as the leading candidate against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, with traders assigning her a 58.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research show her holding narrow leads of five to seven points in head-to-head matchups, reflecting her strong early fundraising of nearly $9 million in the first quarter compared to Sullivan’s roughly $2 million. The state’s jungle primary on August 18 and ranked-choice voting in the November general election add uncertainty to the outcome, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, cash reserves, and alignment with major resource projects. Minor candidates remain negligible factors at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$325,919Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Mary Peltola’s entry into the 2026 Alaska Senate race has positioned her as the leading candidate against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, with traders assigning her a 58.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research show her holding narrow leads of five to seven points in head-to-head matchups, reflecting her strong early fundraising of nearly $9 million in the first quarter compared to Sullivan’s roughly $2 million. The state’s jungle primary on August 18 and ranked-choice voting in the November general election add uncertainty to the outcome, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, cash reserves, and alignment with major resource projects. Minor candidates remain negligible factors at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Wolumen
$325,919Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola’s entry into the 2026 Alaska Senate race has positioned her as the leading candidate against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, with traders assigning her a 58.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research show her holding narrow leads of five to seven points in head-to-head matchups, reflecting her strong early fundraising of nearly $9 million in the first quarter compared to Sullivan’s roughly $2 million. The state’s jungle primary on August 18 and ranked-choice voting in the November general election add uncertainty to the outcome, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, cash reserves, and alignment with major resource projects. Minor candidates remain negligible factors at this stage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania