Morena maintains a substantial lead in voting intention for Mexico’s 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, with recent national polls placing it between 35% and 45%, well ahead of the fragmented opposition. PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano trail individually in the low-to-mid teens, while smaller allies PVEM and PT register single digits. This positioning reflects Morena’s sustained support following its 2024 results and the ongoing government of President Claudia Sheinbaum. Recent developments include the start of internal candidate registration processes, with thousands of aspirants stepping down from public posts, alongside opposition discussions of potential alliances that could narrow the gap in seat allocation. Traders appear to price in Morena’s structural advantages and the opposition’s coordination challenges ahead of the June 2027 vote.