Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability for April 2026 unemployment holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's actual 4.3% print—down from February's 4.4% and beating consensus—paired with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent Labor Department data shows initial jobless claims dropping to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, below 213,000 estimates, while ADP's preliminary April private payrolls averaged 54,750 jobs weekly, signaling modest resilience amid softening ISM services employment at 45.2. The wide dispersion reflects uncertainty from prior claims spikes and benchmark revisions, with key swing factors including wage growth and labor force participation ahead of the May 2 BLS release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoApril Unemployment Rate
April Unemployment Rate
4.3% 34%
4.4% 21%
4.2% 19%
4.5% 12%
$20,835 Wol.
$20,835 Wol.
May 8, 2026
≤3.9%
2%
4.0%
2%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
19%
4.3%
34%
4.4%
21%
4.5%
12%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 34%
4.4% 21%
4.2% 19%
4.5% 12%
$20,835 Wol.
$20,835 Wol.
May 8, 2026
≤3.9%
$2,231 Wol.
2%
4.0%
$2,106 Wol.
2%
4.1%
$1,637 Wol.
6%
4.2%
$1,963 Wol.
19%
4.3%
$2,033 Wol.
34%
4.4%
$5,526 Wol.
21%
4.5%
$1,017 Wol.
12%
4.6%
$1,325 Wol.
4%
≥4.7%
$2,997 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability for April 2026 unemployment holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's actual 4.3% print—down from February's 4.4% and beating consensus—paired with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent Labor Department data shows initial jobless claims dropping to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, below 213,000 estimates, while ADP's preliminary April private payrolls averaged 54,750 jobs weekly, signaling modest resilience amid softening ISM services employment at 45.2. The wide dispersion reflects uncertainty from prior claims spikes and benchmark revisions, with key swing factors including wage growth and labor force participation ahead of the May 2 BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,835Data zakończenia
May 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability for April 2026 unemployment holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's actual 4.3% print—down from February's 4.4% and beating consensus—paired with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent Labor Department data shows initial jobless claims dropping to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, below 213,000 estimates, while ADP's preliminary April private payrolls averaged 54,750 jobs weekly, signaling modest resilience amid softening ISM services employment at 45.2. The wide dispersion reflects uncertainty from prior claims spikes and benchmark revisions, with key swing factors including wage growth and labor force participation ahead of the May 2 BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$20,835Data zakończenia
May 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 33.5% implied probability for April 2026 unemployment holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's actual 4.3% print—down from February's 4.4% and beating consensus—paired with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. Recent Labor Department data shows initial jobless claims dropping to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, below 213,000 estimates, while ADP's preliminary April private payrolls averaged 54,750 jobs weekly, signaling modest resilience amid softening ISM services employment at 45.2. The wide dispersion reflects uncertainty from prior claims spikes and benchmark revisions, with key swing factors including wage growth and labor force participation ahead of the May 2 BLS release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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