Vladimir Putin’s current six-year term, secured in the March 2024 election, extends through 2030, while 2020 constitutional amendments explicitly permit him two additional consecutive terms potentially until 2036. No official statements or institutional signals indicate voluntary resignation or forced removal by late 2026. Despite reported elite dissatisfaction and economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, Putin maintains firm control over security structures, the ruling United Russia party, and state media, with approval ratings near 80 percent. Traders price the 88.5 percent probability for “No” on the absence of credible succession mechanisms or acute political crises capable of displacing him within the narrow window. Late-breaking health events or major battlefield reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still shift these odds.