President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market sentiment on any near-term U.S. explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the effort as non-explosive system or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. U.S. accusations of a Chinese low-yield test in 2020 and preparations for additional yields in the hundreds of tons, reiterated in February 2026 at the Conference on Disarmament, have heightened strategic competition narratives. However, NNSA readiness timelines of 24-36 months, congressional resistance requiring prior approval, and the absence of any announced test schedule since the initial statements limit near-term probability. Scheduled arms control discussions and stockpile stewardship funding decisions could still shift positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$669,980 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
1%
2026년 9월 30일
5%
2026년 12월 31일
9%
$669,980 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$42,083 거래량
1%
2026년 9월 30일
$7,047 거래량
5%
2026년 12월 31일
$10,632 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market sentiment on any near-term U.S. explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the effort as non-explosive system or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. U.S. accusations of a Chinese low-yield test in 2020 and preparations for additional yields in the hundreds of tons, reiterated in February 2026 at the Conference on Disarmament, have heightened strategic competition narratives. However, NNSA readiness timelines of 24-36 months, congressional resistance requiring prior approval, and the absence of any announced test schedule since the initial statements limit near-term probability. Scheduled arms control discussions and stockpile stewardship funding decisions could still shift positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$669,980종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market sentiment on any near-term U.S. explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the effort as non-explosive system or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. U.S. accusations of a Chinese low-yield test in 2020 and preparations for additional yields in the hundreds of tons, reiterated in February 2026 at the Conference on Disarmament, have heightened strategic competition narratives. However, NNSA readiness timelines of 24-36 months, congressional resistance requiring prior approval, and the absence of any announced test schedule since the initial statements limit near-term probability. Scheduled arms control discussions and stockpile stewardship funding decisions could still shift positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$669,980종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market sentiment on any near-term U.S. explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the effort as non-explosive system or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. U.S. accusations of a Chinese low-yield test in 2020 and preparations for additional yields in the hundreds of tons, reiterated in February 2026 at the Conference on Disarmament, have heightened strategic competition narratives. However, NNSA readiness timelines of 24-36 months, congressional resistance requiring prior approval, and the absence of any announced test schedule since the initial statements limit near-term probability. Scheduled arms control discussions and stockpile stewardship funding decisions could still shift positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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