President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on whether the United States conducts an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. The U.S. has observed its voluntary moratorium since the last test in 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and annual assessments confirming arsenal safety without explosive testing. Administration officials have clarified that implementation focuses on assessing options, including possible hydronuclear or non-yield-producing experiments, while New START’s expiration and ongoing diplomatic talks add uncertainty. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, Senate oversight, and potential international repercussions continue to constrain near-term prospects for a full-yield underground detonation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$666,780 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
3%
2026년 9월 30일
5%
2026년 12월 31일
9%
$666,780 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$40,037 거래량
3%
2026년 9월 30일
$6,052 거래량
5%
2026년 12월 31일
$10,472 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on whether the United States conducts an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. The U.S. has observed its voluntary moratorium since the last test in 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and annual assessments confirming arsenal safety without explosive testing. Administration officials have clarified that implementation focuses on assessing options, including possible hydronuclear or non-yield-producing experiments, while New START’s expiration and ongoing diplomatic talks add uncertainty. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, Senate oversight, and potential international repercussions continue to constrain near-term prospects for a full-yield underground detonation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$666,780종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on whether the United States conducts an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. The U.S. has observed its voluntary moratorium since the last test in 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and annual assessments confirming arsenal safety without explosive testing. Administration officials have clarified that implementation focuses on assessing options, including possible hydronuclear or non-yield-producing experiments, while New START’s expiration and ongoing diplomatic talks add uncertainty. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, Senate oversight, and potential international repercussions continue to constrain near-term prospects for a full-yield underground detonation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$666,780종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on whether the United States conducts an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. The U.S. has observed its voluntary moratorium since the last test in 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and annual assessments confirming arsenal safety without explosive testing. Administration officials have clarified that implementation focuses on assessing options, including possible hydronuclear or non-yield-producing experiments, while New START’s expiration and ongoing diplomatic talks add uncertainty. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, Senate oversight, and potential international repercussions continue to constrain near-term prospects for a full-yield underground detonation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문