Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$658,492 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
3%
2026년 9월 30일
6%
2026년 12월 31일
10%
$658,492 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$33,298 거래량
3%
2026년 9월 30일
$5,584 거래량
6%
2026년 12월 31일
$9,392 거래량
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$658,492종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$658,492종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문