The U.S. maintains a moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, adhering informally to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty despite lacking Senate ratification. President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption—citing perceived Russian and Chinese violations—sparked debate, but experts highlight 24-36 months needed to prepare test infrastructure amid stockpile stewardship programs relying on subcritical experiments. A March 2026 Pentagon official's non-committal assessment on underground tests reflected ongoing evaluation without firm timelines. No verified preparations or tests have advanced in recent months, underscoring logistical, diplomatic, and congressional hurdles like Nevada lawmakers' opposition, with trader consensus pricing low near-term probabilities amid geopolitical tensions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$658,461 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
3%
2026년 9월 30일
6%
2026년 12월 31일
10%
$658,461 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$33,298 거래량
3%
2026년 9월 30일
$5,552 거래량
6%
2026년 12월 31일
$9,392 거래량
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, adhering informally to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty despite lacking Senate ratification. President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption—citing perceived Russian and Chinese violations—sparked debate, but experts highlight 24-36 months needed to prepare test infrastructure amid stockpile stewardship programs relying on subcritical experiments. A March 2026 Pentagon official's non-committal assessment on underground tests reflected ongoing evaluation without firm timelines. No verified preparations or tests have advanced in recent months, underscoring logistical, diplomatic, and congressional hurdles like Nevada lawmakers' opposition, with trader consensus pricing low near-term probabilities amid geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$658,461종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, adhering informally to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty despite lacking Senate ratification. President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption—citing perceived Russian and Chinese violations—sparked debate, but experts highlight 24-36 months needed to prepare test infrastructure amid stockpile stewardship programs relying on subcritical experiments. A March 2026 Pentagon official's non-committal assessment on underground tests reflected ongoing evaluation without firm timelines. No verified preparations or tests have advanced in recent months, underscoring logistical, diplomatic, and congressional hurdles like Nevada lawmakers' opposition, with trader consensus pricing low near-term probabilities amid geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$658,461종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. maintains a moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, adhering informally to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty despite lacking Senate ratification. President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption—citing perceived Russian and Chinese violations—sparked debate, but experts highlight 24-36 months needed to prepare test infrastructure amid stockpile stewardship programs relying on subcritical experiments. A March 2026 Pentagon official's non-committal assessment on underground tests reflected ongoing evaluation without firm timelines. No verified preparations or tests have advanced in recent months, underscoring logistical, diplomatic, and congressional hurdles like Nevada lawmakers' opposition, with trader consensus pricing low near-term probabilities amid geopolitical tensions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문