Vladimir Putin’s current six-year presidential term, secured in the 2024 election, runs through 2030, with 2020 constitutional amendments enabling potential extension to 2036. This timeline, combined with the absence of a designated successor and the regime’s firm control over elite factions, security services, and legislative institutions, underpins the strong trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% “No” price. Recent public appearances, including the May 2026 Victory Day events and ongoing management of foreign policy priorities, show no signs of transition or incapacity. While health speculation and elite balancing occasionally surface, they have not produced verifiable shifts in power structures or public statements indicating departure before the end of 2026. Late-breaking developments such as sudden health events or elite realignments remain the primary scenarios that could alter these odds.