Russia flexes nuclear muscles amid NATO tensions with missile launches and munitions issuance

Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO over the Ukraine war and Baltic drone activity. This military signaling reinforced perceptions of nuclear capability without crossing into nuclear testing, sustaining low market probabilities for a test.

Russia conducts large-scale nuclear forces exercise including warhead delivery drills

Russia held major nuclear exercises involving troops delivering nuclear warheads to missile launchers and practicing combat readiness for nuclear weapons use. While this showed heightened readiness and nuclear capability, it did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, which kept market expectations for a test low.

Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia released footage showing troops delivering nuclear warheads to mobile Iskander-M missile launchers and moving them to launch sites as part of a major nuclear exercise, signaling high nuclear readiness but no nuclear test occurred.

Russia conducts large-scale nuclear forces exercise including warhead delivery

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%

Russia held major nuclear exercises involving delivery of nuclear warheads to missile launchers and mobilization of strategic forces. This demonstration of nuclear readiness increased tensions and market uncertainty but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, contributing to the decline in test probability prices.

Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia released footage showing troops delivering nuclear warheads to mobile Iskander-M missile launch systems as part of a major nuclear forces exercise, demonstrating nuclear readiness.

Russia shows troops loading nuclear warheads onto Iskander‑M launchers in major exercise

June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Russia released footage of troops loading nuclear warheads onto mobile Iskander‑M launchers as part of a large‑scale nuclear exercise. While the drill demonstrated readiness, it also signalled that Russia was focusing on conventional‑level nuclear posturing rather than conducting an actual test, nudging the market further down.

Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise

Russian Defence Ministry released footage of troops moving nuclear warheads to missile launchers and rehearsing launch procedures, signaling high combat readiness but no nuclear detonation. This demonstration reinforced market views that Russia was signaling strength without conducting a nuclear test.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites

Russia conducted large-scale nuclear forces exercises involving tens of thousands of troops and numerous missile launchers, rehearsing nuclear weapon use procedures. These exercises were seen as nuclear posturing rather than actual nuclear tests, maintaining downward pressure on the probability of a nuclear detonation test.

Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise with warhead delivery drills

Russia showcased troops delivering nuclear warheads to missile launchers and rehearsed launch procedures in a large-scale nuclear exercise, signaling heightened readiness but not conducting an actual nuclear test. This demonstration of capability without a test detonation further reduced market expectations for a nuclear test within the year.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian sites

Russia initiated its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and numerous nuclear-capable systems, including integration with Belarusian forces. The unannounced drills were framed as preparation for nuclear force use in case of aggression, signaling nuclear readiness but not involving a nuclear test, which further lowered market expectations for a test.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian sites

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and numerous nuclear-capable systems, including integration with Belarusian forces. This nuclear muscle-flexing amid geopolitical tensions reinforced readiness but did not involve a nuclear test, further lowering test likelihood.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years

September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%

Russia mobilized nearly 65,000 troops and strategic forces for its largest nuclear drills in years, announced without prior public notice, featuring practice launches of nuclear-capable missiles.

Bulletin: Russia’s nuclear modernization hampered – no test confirmed in 2026

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a detailed assessment noting that Russia’s nuclear modernization program faces “significant challenges and delays” and that no nuclear test had been confirmed in 2026. The analysis reinforced market sentiment that a test was unlikely, contributing to the continued drop in odds.

Russia successfully tests new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile, Putin vows deployment by year-end

December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%

Russia conducted a successful test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful. Despite the test, it was a missile flight test, not a nuclear detonation, which kept market expectations for a nuclear test low.

Putin announces successful Sarmat ICBM test launch

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia's new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed 'Satan II' by NATO, was successfully test-launched. President Putin stated it would enter combat service by the end of 2026, significantly impacting nuclear capabilities and market sentiment.

CNN investigation reveals Russian ship likely carrying nuclear submarine reactor components sank

A Russian cargo ship sank in 2024 carrying components for nuclear submarine reactors, raising concerns about nuclear technology transfers but no evidence of nuclear explosive testing by Russia in 2026.

Putin hails successful test launch of new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a successful test launch of the nuclear-armed Sarmat ICBM, emphasizing Russia's nuclear modernization but without conducting a nuclear detonation. This demonstration of missile capability was interpreted as a signal of strength rather than a nuclear test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probabilities.

Putin announces successful Sarmat ICBM test launch

December 31, 2026 plunges to 8%42%

Russia conducted a successful test of its long-delayed Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Putin described as the world's most powerful missile system, setting it for combat deployment by year-end.

Putin hails Russia's Sarmat nuclear missile test launch

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%50%

Russia successfully test-fired its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Putin described as 'the most powerful missile in the world' and claimed would enter combat service by the end of 2026. This major nuclear weapons development announcement significantly impacted market sentiment.

Russia test launches new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

Russia successfully test launched the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a nuclear-armed system, demonstrating modernization progress but not conducting a nuclear detonation. This event maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test.

Putin says Sarmat ICBM test‑launch was successful, no nuclear detonation

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%

Putin announced a successful test‑launch of the new RS‑28 Sarmat ICBM but clarified it was a flight test, not a nuclear detonation. The clarification that the launch was a missile‑system test – not a nuclear explosion – further reduced the perceived probability of an actual nuclear test, reinforcing the market’s downward swing.

Russia successfully tests Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, plans deployment by year-end

Russia announced a successful test launch of its RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, with President Putin stating it will enter operational service by the end of 2026. This demonstration of nuclear delivery capability reinforced Russia's strategic deterrence posture but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, thus not fulfilling the market's nuclear test criteria.

Russia successfully tests new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Russia conducted a successful test launch of the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, which is nuclear-capable and described by Putin as the world's most powerful. This test demonstrated nuclear-capable missile advancement but was not a nuclear detonation test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probability.

Russia successfully tests Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia announced a successful test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, a nuclear-capable missile described as the most powerful in the world, with deployment planned by the end of 2026. While this was a significant military and nuclear modernization event, it was not a nuclear explosive test, and thus did not fulfill the market's resolution criteria, leading to continued low probabilities for a nuclear test.

Russia successfully test-launches new Sarmat nuclear-capable missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia conducted a successful test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, to be deployed by year-end. While this demonstrated nuclear capability modernization, it was not a nuclear test detonation, leading to further market price declines for a nuclear test occurring.

Russian officials tighten security measures amid ongoing tensions

Russia's Federal Protective Service banned officials from wearing watches in meetings with Putin, reflecting heightened security concerns but no indication of nuclear testing.

Analysts note that the expiration of New START removes legal barrier to testing but political costs remain high

Commentary emphasizing that while the treaty’s end technically allows testing, the diplomatic fallout and lack of strategic need keep the probability low, cementing the market’s low price.

Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.

Russia warns of missile tests at Kamchatka’s Kura range, May 6‑10

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia announced a series of missile tests at the Kura range (May 6‑10) – rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads – but the Ministry made clear no nuclear devices were being detonated. The announcement reinforced market belief that the activities were conventional test flights, pushing Yes odds further down to single‑digit levels.

Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks

Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.

U.S. Energy Secretary says any Trump‑ordered tests would be non‑nuclear

Clarification that any U.S. tests would not involve nuclear explosions reduced the perceived trigger for a Russian nuclear test, contributing to the final drop to 4%‑5%.

Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%

Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.

UN nuclear test ban treaty head warns US and Russia against testing

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US or Russia resumed nuclear testing, other nations would follow, emphasizing the high stakes and international pressure against nuclear tests. This likely pressured the market to lower the probability of a Russian nuclear test.

IAEA chief warns a Russian nuclear test would spark a global testing spiral

December 31, 2026 drops to 7%5%

The IAEA chief warned that any nuclear test by Russia would trigger a cascade of follow‑on tests by other states, emphasising that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty remains in force and that no official Russian test had been reported. The warning lowered market expectations that Russia would break the test moratorium, prompting a sharp decline in the “Yes” price for all three dates.

Russia reiterates readiness to keep New START limits for another year

Putin’s reaffirmation that Russia would honor the treaty’s caps for an additional year if the U.S. does so removed a key catalyst for a test, pushing prices toward single‑digit levels.

Congressional report details Russia's nuclear arsenal and modernization efforts

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

A Congressional Research Service report outlined Russia's large and modernizing nuclear arsenal, including new capabilities and deployments, but noted no nuclear tests. This reinforced the view that Russia was enhancing its arsenal without conducting tests, contributing to a decline in market prices for a nuclear test occurring by year-end.

Russia’s deputy security council head Medvedev warns of “proportional” response to U.S. missile defenses

Medvedev’s warning that Russia would act proportionately if the U.S. pursues new missile defenses was interpreted as a diplomatic threat rather than an imminent test, further lowering market odds.

IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation resumes nuclear testing, it would trigger others to follow, reinforcing the global norm against nuclear detonations. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov responded that Russia would only resume testing if the US did so first, maintaining a conditional moratorium. This statement contributed to market declines in test probability.

Ukraine drone strike hits Russian oil facility in Tuapse

The attack raised concerns about Russia’s domestic stability and its need to conserve strategic assets, reducing the perceived incentive for a risky nuclear test.

Russia announces missile tests at Kura range with nuclear-capable rockets

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia announced missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka, where rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads were test-fired. This demonstrated ongoing nuclear-capable missile activity but did not involve a nuclear detonation, tempering expectations of a nuclear test.

U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.

U.S. President Trump signals intent to resume nuclear testing

Trump’s public remarks about restarting U.S. nuclear tests heightened the risk of reciprocal Russian testing, initially spiking the market before the subsequent diplomatic reassurance pulled prices down further.

Russian diplomat says Moscow will observe New START limits as long as the U.S. does

Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that Russia will stick to the treaty’s caps if the U.S. follows suit reassured markets that Moscow is not seeking to expand its arsenal through testing.

Putin orders temporary cease‑fire for Easter, halting combat operations

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

On 10 April 2026 Putin signed a decree ordering a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter. The move was interpreted as a de‑escalation signal and further reduced market expectations that Russia would conduct a nuclear test in the near term.

Medvedev calls Hormuz closure a ‘nuclear‑weapon‑like’ test

June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%

Medvedev’s X‑post on 9 April described Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz as a “nuclear weapon” and warned that the closure was a “test.” The heightened nuclear rhetoric briefly lifted market optimism about a Russian test, but the effect was modest and the overall trend remained downward.

Russia's Deputy Security Council Chair Calls Strait of Hormuz Closure a 'Nuclear Weapon'

September 30, 2026 rises to 10%1%

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, stated on X that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a 'nuclear weapon' with 'inexhaustible potential,' and that the strait is closed again. This statement contributed to the September 30, 2026 outcome price movement.

Medvedev calls Iran's control over Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, claimed Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a 'nuclear weapon' with 'inexhaustible potential,' adding to nuclear tensions in the region.

Russian official Dmitry Medvedev claims Iran 'tested nuclear weapons' via Strait of Hormuz

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that Iran has 'tested its nuclear weapons' in the form of control over the Strait of Hormuz, a metaphorical claim rather than an actual nuclear detonation. This rhetoric increased geopolitical tensions but did not indicate a Russian nuclear test, contributing to market price declines.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev claims Iran has 'tested its nuclear weapons' via Strait of Hormuz

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Dmitry Medvedev stated that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a nuclear weapon, calling its closure a test with inexhaustible potential. This statement reflects heightened nuclear rhetoric involving Russia and Iran but does not indicate any Russian nuclear test, influencing market sentiment to lower the probability of a Russian test.

Russian TV warns nuclear strike could wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth

Russian state television aired a chilling warning that nuclear strikes could be used to “wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth,” raising fears of imminent nuclear escalation but not an actual test. The news triggered a further plunge in the market’s expectation of a test.

Russia announces plans to resume nuclear rocket engine research for space missions

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia declared it will present a draft design of a new nuclear rocket engine by the end of 2026, aimed at lunar flights and long-range space missions. This development reflects Russia's focus on nuclear technology for peaceful space exploration rather than nuclear weapons testing, which likely contributed to market reassessment of nuclear test probabilities.

Russian state TV issues chilling nuclear threat to Ukraine but no nuclear test reported

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russian state television threatened nuclear strikes against Ukraine, escalating nuclear rhetoric amid military setbacks. Despite the threats, no nuclear test was reported, contributing to the market's sharp decline in the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the deadlines.

Russia commits to adhering to New START nuclear arms limits despite treaty expiration

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

On April 7, 2026, Russian officials stated that Russia would continue to observe the limits of the expired New START treaty as long as the United States did the same. This commitment reduced market fears of imminent Russian nuclear testing, contributing to a sharp decline in the market price for a test by September 30, 2026.

Russia sets 2026 deadline for draft design of nuclear rocket engine

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

On 7 April 2026 Russia announced completion dates for a new nuclear‑rocket‑engine project, a civilian space‑technology programme. The announcement shifted market perception that Moscow’s nuclear activity was focused on peaceful space work rather than a weapons test, prompting the sharp drop in "Yes" probabilities for a nuclear test.

Trump’s nuclear‑use talk and Putin’s fresh nuclear threats dominate April‑6 nuclear news roundup

A nuclear‑news roundup highlighted that President Trump had revived talk of using tactical nukes, and noted that Putin’s recent nuclear threats added to global tension. The combined coverage reinforced market belief that a formal Russian test was unlikely in the near term.

Trump declares intent to restart nuclear testing

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Donald Trump announced his intention to restart nuclear testing, prompting concerns about nuclear proliferation and raising fears of nuclear conflict in the Middle East.

Russian leader Putin's nuclear threats and warnings amid Middle East conflict raise concerns but no test occurs

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Russian leader Vladimir Putin frequently issued nuclear threats related to the West Asia conflict, raising global fears of nuclear escalation. However, no nuclear test was conducted by Russia during this period, leading to a decline in market prices reflecting the reduced likelihood of a test.

Trump reportedly declares intent to restart nuclear testing

Trump reportedly declared his intent to restart nuclear testing, raising nuclear risk perceptions and influencing market sentiment, though not directly related to Russia's actions.

US-Israeli strike near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant kills one, no radiation increase

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

A projectile from a US-Israeli strike landed near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, killing one security guard but causing no increase in radiation levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency expressed concern but confirmed no nuclear detonation occurred. This event heightened regional tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing.

Russia reopens gateway to ISS with nuclear-electric propulsion demonstration

Russia announced a nuclear-electric propulsion demonstration for the Gateway space station, which may have contributed to market speculation about nuclear technology developments.

Russia condemns attacks on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant amid regional conflict

September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%

Russia expressed strong condemnation of attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, highlighting concerns over nuclear safety but with no indication of Russia conducting nuclear tests itself, contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear testing.

Russia says its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles have entered service in Belarus

Moscow announced the operational deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic system, a move seen as a deterrent rather than a prelude to testing, which helped push prices lower.

Former CIA Director William Burns discusses nuclear concerns about Russia

William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in a podcast that people within the administration were concerned about nuclear use by Russia, reinforcing nuclear risk perceptions.

Russia evacuates 198 staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant amid conflict

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom evacuated 198 staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran due to escalating military strikes near the facility. This evacuation underscored heightened risks but did not involve any nuclear test by Russia, reducing market expectations of imminent Russian nuclear testing.

Russian forces gain territory in Ukraine amid ongoing conflict

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russian military advances in Ukraine during early April 2026 increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve nuclear testing, leading markets to lower the probability of a Russian nuclear test within the year.

Russia warns West Asia conflict could go nuclear

Russian leadership issued a nuclear warning about the West Asia conflict, increasing nuclear risk perceptions and contributing to market price declines.

U.S. and Russia’s nuclear arms pact expires, raising fears of a new arms race

The New START treaty expired on Feb. 5, and analysts warned that the lack of limits could trigger a competitive buildup, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a Russian test.

Russia conducts missile strikes including nuclear-capable missiles but no nuclear test

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine using nuclear-capable missiles, heightening fears of escalation. Despite the use of nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test detonation occurred, leading to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.

Russia requests ceasefire as it evacuates staff from Bushehr nuclear plant

June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%

Rosatom head Alexei Likhachev announced Russia would ask U.S. and Israel to ensure a ceasefire while evacuating about 200 Russian staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where Russia built the reactor.

Russia attacks Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility with heavy tanks and artillery

Russia launched an attack on Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility using heavy tanks and artillery, causing a major fire and significantly increasing nuclear risk perceptions.

Iran's nuclear breakout time measured in days

Iran's nuclear program was reported to have a breakout time measured not in months but in days, indicating rapid advancement. This heightened nuclear risk perception likely influenced the market's price movements across all outcomes.

Russia warns West Asia conflict could go nuclear

Russian leadership warned that the West Asia conflict could escalate to nuclear use, increasing nuclear risk perceptions and influencing market sentiment.

Russia warns US and Israel to stop attacks on Bushehr nuclear plant

June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%

Russia issued a statement strongly condemning attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where hundreds of Russian personnel are stationed, raising concerns about radioactive contamination risks.

Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.

Russia Evacuates Staff from Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Plant Amid US-Israeli Attacks

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia announced it would evacuate approximately 200 staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which Russia built, as the US and Israel conducted strikes on the facility. This event caused a significant price drop to 2% for the June 30, 2026 outcome.

Russia coordinates evacuation of staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant amid US-Israeli strikes

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia announced plans to evacuate about 200 personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, requesting ceasefire adherence from the US and Israel during the evacuation. This highlighted Russia's focus on protecting its nuclear-related personnel abroad rather than conducting nuclear tests, reducing market expectations of a Russian nuclear test.

Russia asks US and Israel to enforce cease‑fire as it evacuates staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant

Russia announced it would request a cease‑fire from the United States and Israel while evacuating Rosatom staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. The announcement shifted market sentiment away from a Russian nuclear test, pushing the “Yes” probability for a test down sharply across all listed dates.

US and Israel intensify campaign against Iran's nuclear program

The US and Israel launched a coordinated campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility, escalating tensions in the region. This heightened nuclear risk perception likely influenced the market's price movements across all outcomes.

No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions

December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.

Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles but no nuclear test reported

December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%

Russia announced the active service deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, increasing nuclear tensions. However, no nuclear test was conducted or reported, contributing to the market's reassessment and price drop for the December 31, 2026 outcome.

U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant

U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility raised nuclear escalation risks, contributing to market volatility and price drops across all outcomes.

Russian Security Council deputy chairman warns of nuclear escalation risks in Middle East

December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%

Dmitry Medvedev warned that US actions against Iran could increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict in the Middle East, raising global nuclear tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test activity.

Former CIA Director discusses nuclear use concerns by Russia

William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in an April 4 podcast that people within the administration were concerned about nuclear use by Russia in late 2022, reinforcing nuclear threat perceptions.

No credible reports of Russian nuclear test emerge amid heightened tensions

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Despite increased military activity and deployment of nuclear-capable missiles by Russia, no credible news or official confirmation of a nuclear test by Russia was reported during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a sharp decline in market prices for the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test by September 30, 2026.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin issues frequent nuclear threats amid West Asia conflict

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Putin's repeated nuclear threats and Russia's warning that the West Asia conflict could escalate to nuclear levels heightened global tensions but did not translate into an actual nuclear test, leading markets to reassess the likelihood of such an event occurring soon.

Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict

September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%

On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.

French Air Force General warns Russia may test NATO strength in 2028-2029

General Dominique Tardif, deputy commander of French Air Force, stated that Russia might test NATO's strength between 2028 and 2029, heightening nuclear tensions and influencing market sentiment.

Russia begins pilot-scale production of miniature nuclear batteries

Tomsk Polytechnic University researchers initiated pilot-scale production of betavoltaic nuclear batteries, marking a step in long-duration energy systems. This development may have contributed to increased nuclear-related market sentiment, though it does not constitute a nuclear test.

Russia-Ukraine War: Russian forces gain Ukrainian territory

Russian forces gained 17 square miles of Ukrainian territory during March 10–April 7, 2026, according to ISW data, escalating the conflict and raising nuclear risk perceptions.