This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 6 2026
Continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine with no nuclear test despite nuclear saber rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Reports of Russia’s conventional military actions and nuclear threats without actual nuclear testing maintained the market’s low probability, reflecting skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
May 5 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to
September 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to abide by New START limits, reducing perceived testing intent
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reiterates Russia’s nuclear modernization amid failed tests and no new detonations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The latest U.S. assessment confirmed Russia’s ongoing modernization and failed test attempts without any nuclear test, sustaining the market’s low odds.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 22 2026
Congressional report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization and rejection of limits on nonstrategic nuclear weapons
The report emphasized Russia’s nuclear posture and modernization but noted no nuclear test activity, supporting the market’s stable low probability for a test.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
Apr 21 2026
Head of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Robert Floyd cautioned at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S. or Russia would trigger a dangerous global spiral, reinforcing international pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium and dampening market expectations.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment revealed Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal amid multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges but no confirmed nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Mar 28 2026
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 6 2026
Continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine with no nuclear test despite nuclear saber rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Reports of Russia’s conventional military actions and nuclear threats without actual nuclear testing maintained the market’s low probability, reflecting skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
May 5 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to
September 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to abide by New START limits, reducing perceived testing intent
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reiterates Russia’s nuclear modernization amid failed tests and no new detonations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The latest U.S. assessment confirmed Russia’s ongoing modernization and failed test attempts without any nuclear test, sustaining the market’s low odds.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 22 2026
Congressional report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization and rejection of limits on nonstrategic nuclear weapons
The report emphasized Russia’s nuclear posture and modernization but noted no nuclear test activity, supporting the market’s stable low probability for a test.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
Apr 21 2026
Head of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Robert Floyd cautioned at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S. or Russia would trigger a dangerous global spiral, reinforcing international pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium and dampening market expectations.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment revealed Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal amid multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges but no confirmed nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Mar 28 2026
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
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외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문
"러시아의 핵실험은...?"은 6개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 8%의 "2026년 12월 31일"이며, 이어서 5%의 "2026년 9월 30일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 8¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 8%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "러시아의 핵실험은...?"은 총 $1.4 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 5, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"러시아의 핵실험은...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 6개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
이것은 완전히 열린 마켓입니다. "러시아의 핵실험은...?"의 현재 선두는 8%에 불과한 "2026년 12월 31일"이며, "2026년 9월 30일"이 5%로 바짝 뒤쫓고 있습니다. 강한 과반을 차지하는 결과가 없어 트레이더들은 이를 매우 불확실하게 보고 있으며, 이는 독특한 거래 기회를 제공할 수 있습니다. 이 확률은 실시간으로 업데이트되므로 이 페이지를 북마크하여 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 지켜보세요.
"러시아의 핵실험은...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "러시아의 핵실험은...?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "러시아의 핵실험은...?"에 $1.4 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"러시아의 핵실험은...?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "러시아의 핵실험은...?" 마켓에서 "2026년 12월 31일"의 8¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "2026년 12월 31일"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 8%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 8¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 92¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"러시아의 핵실험은...?" 마켓의 예정 종료일이 지났지만 아직 공식적으로 정산되지 않았습니다. 종료일은 기초 이벤트가 발생하거나 알 수 있게 될 것으로 예상되는 시점을 나타냅니다. 거래가 중단되는 순간이 아닙니다. 마켓은 정산 프로세스를 통해 결과가 공식적으로 정산될 때까지 거래가 열려 있습니다. 마켓이 정산 대기 중인 동안에도 포지션을 매수, 매도, 종료할 수 있습니다. 정산 상태 추적기와 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에서 정산 타임라인에 대한 업데이트를 확인하세요.
"러시아의 핵실험은...?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 7개 댓글의 성장하는 토론이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "러시아의 핵실험은...?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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