Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

$6,929,664 Vol.

Nov 7, 2025
Polymarket

$6,929,664 Vol.

Polymarket

October 30

$77,645 Vol.

Yes

October 31

$153,814 Vol.

No

November 1

$77,419 Vol.

No

November 2

$104,552 Vol.

Yes

November 3

$79,019 Vol.

Yes

November 4

$126,778 Vol.

Yes

November 5

$203,702 Vol.

No

November 6

$49,111 Vol.

No

November 7

$35,457 Vol.

No

November 8

$15,571 Vol.

Yes

November 9

$1,280,816 Vol.

No

November 10

$61,561 Vol.

Yes

November 11

$29,870 Vol.

No

November 12

$92,584 Vol.

Yes

November 13

$54,020 Vol.

No

November 14

$45,955 Vol.

No

November 15

$42,589 Vol.

No

November 16

$83,132 Vol.

Yes

November 17

$87,333 Vol.

Yes

November 18

$85,671 Vol.

No

November 19

$44,963 Vol.

Yes

November 20

$54,782 Vol.

Yes

November 21

$26,088 Vol.

Yes

November 22

$21,268 Vol.

Yes

November 23

$30,534 Vol.

No

November 24

$14,365 Vol.

Yes

November 25

$59,307 Vol.

No

November 26

$53,317 Vol.

Yes

November 27

$33,245 Vol.

No

November 28

$12,086 Vol.

Yes

November 29

$11,476 Vol.

Yes

November 30

$1,857,452 Vol.

No

December 1

$62,509 Vol.

Yes

December 2

$106,063 Vol.

Yes

December 3

$147,719 Vol.

Yes

December 4

$85,586 Vol.

No

December 5

$71,822 Vol.

Yes

December 6

$139,818 Vol.

No

December 7

$60,961 Vol.

No

December 8

$131,667 Vol.

Yes

December 9

$57,324 Vol.

No

December 10

$35,639 Vol.

No

December 11

$31,527 Vol.

No

December 12

$18,538 Vol.

No

December 13

$15,811 Vol.

Yes

December 14

$44,676 Vol.

No

December 15

$15,593 Vol.

No

December 16

$19,598 Vol.

No

December 17

$54,038 Vol.

No

December 18

$20,785 Vol.

Yes

December 19

$18,414 Vol.

Yes

December 20

$156,923 Vol.

Yes

December 21

$95,642 Vol.

Yes

December 22

$103,890 Vol.

No

December 23

$42,350 Vol.

No

December 24

$79,828 Vol.

No

December 25

$97,271 Vol.

Yes

December 26

$90,936 Vol.

No

December 27

$29,623 Vol.

No

December 28

$19,861 Vol.

No

December 29

$18,062 Vol.

No

December 30

$23,206 Vol.

No

December 31

$28,504 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
볼륨
$6,929,664
종료일
Dec 31, 2025
생성일
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

제안된 결과: Yes

이의 없음

최종 결과: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Israel strike Gaza on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 63+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 30" at 100%, followed by "November 2" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Israel strike Gaza on...?" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Israel strike Gaza on...?," browse the 63+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Israel strike Gaza on...?" is "October 30" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "November 2" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Israel strike Gaza on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.