Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather outlook showing zero development potential in the basin, with routine advisories paused until June 1 or necessary. Climatologically, pre-season hurricanes (74 mph+ sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are exceedingly rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of seasons since 1851, due to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from anticipated El Niño conditions, and dry Saharan air. Colorado State University's April 9 outlook forecasts below-normal 2026 activity from elevated shear. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST warming or an early tropical wave amid shear breakdown, though NHC model consensus through May 15 sees low odds; monitor weekly graphical outlooks for changes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$42,767 거래량
$42,767 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$42,767 거래량
$42,767 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather outlook showing zero development potential in the basin, with routine advisories paused until June 1 or necessary. Climatologically, pre-season hurricanes (74 mph+ sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are exceedingly rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of seasons since 1851, due to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from anticipated El Niño conditions, and dry Saharan air. Colorado State University's April 9 outlook forecasts below-normal 2026 activity from elevated shear. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST warming or an early tropical wave amid shear breakdown, though NHC model consensus through May 15 sees low odds; monitor weekly graphical outlooks for changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$42,767종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather outlook showing zero development potential in the basin, with routine advisories paused until June 1 or necessary. Climatologically, pre-season hurricanes (74 mph+ sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are exceedingly rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of seasons since 1851, due to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from anticipated El Niño conditions, and dry Saharan air. Colorado State University's April 9 outlook forecasts below-normal 2026 activity from elevated shear. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST warming or an early tropical wave amid shear breakdown, though NHC model consensus through May 15 sees low odds; monitor weekly graphical outlooks for changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
거래량
$42,767종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest tropical weather outlook showing zero development potential in the basin, with routine advisories paused until June 1 or necessary. Climatologically, pre-season hurricanes (74 mph+ sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are exceedingly rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of seasons since 1851, due to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from anticipated El Niño conditions, and dry Saharan air. Colorado State University's April 9 outlook forecasts below-normal 2026 activity from elevated shear. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST warming or an early tropical wave amid shear breakdown, though NHC model consensus through May 15 sees low odds; monitor weekly graphical outlooks for changes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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