The strong Democratic tilt of Texas's 18th congressional district, anchored in Houston's urban and minority voter base, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward a Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the 2025 vacancy created by Sylvester Turner's death, the special election process funneled candidates through a Democratic primary runoff that produced a nominee expected to hold the seat without significant challenge. Republicans fielded candidates but face structural barriers in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Upcoming primary resolutions and any shifts in turnout or candidate positioning remain the primary variables that could adjust implied probabilities before Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
10%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$0 거래량
89%
Republican Party
$0 거래량
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of Texas's 18th congressional district, anchored in Houston's urban and minority voter base, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward a Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the 2025 vacancy created by Sylvester Turner's death, the special election process funneled candidates through a Democratic primary runoff that produced a nominee expected to hold the seat without significant challenge. Republicans fielded candidates but face structural barriers in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Upcoming primary resolutions and any shifts in turnout or candidate positioning remain the primary variables that could adjust implied probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
거래량
$0종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of Texas's 18th congressional district, anchored in Houston's urban and minority voter base, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward a Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the 2025 vacancy created by Sylvester Turner's death, the special election process funneled candidates through a Democratic primary runoff that produced a nominee expected to hold the seat without significant challenge. Republicans fielded candidates but face structural barriers in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Upcoming primary resolutions and any shifts in turnout or candidate positioning remain the primary variables that could adjust implied probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$0종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic tilt of Texas's 18th congressional district, anchored in Houston's urban and minority voter base, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward a Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the 2025 vacancy created by Sylvester Turner's death, the special election process funneled candidates through a Democratic primary runoff that produced a nominee expected to hold the seat without significant challenge. Republicans fielded candidates but face structural barriers in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Upcoming primary resolutions and any shifts in turnout or candidate positioning remain the primary variables that could adjust implied probabilities before Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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