Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 78.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent Ann Wagner's decisive 2024 reelection margin of 12 points in a district Donald Trump carried by 8 points, reflecting a Republican-leaning partisan baseline amid suburban St. Louis demographics. Despite Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting since April 2025 and leading challenger Fred Wellman's late-April FocalData survey claiming a generic Democratic edge of 4 points, traders discount these amid Wagner's fundraising strength and historical incumbent advantages in comparable races. The Missouri Supreme Court's May 12 approval of the 2026 congressional map solidifies district boundaries without altering MO-02's contours, with the Democratic primary set for August 4 as the next key event.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
79%
Democratic Party
20%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,188 거래량
79%
Democratic Party
$2,183 거래량
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 78.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent Ann Wagner's decisive 2024 reelection margin of 12 points in a district Donald Trump carried by 8 points, reflecting a Republican-leaning partisan baseline amid suburban St. Louis demographics. Despite Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting since April 2025 and leading challenger Fred Wellman's late-April FocalData survey claiming a generic Democratic edge of 4 points, traders discount these amid Wagner's fundraising strength and historical incumbent advantages in comparable races. The Missouri Supreme Court's May 12 approval of the 2026 congressional map solidifies district boundaries without altering MO-02's contours, with the Democratic primary set for August 4 as the next key event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$5,370종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 78.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent Ann Wagner's decisive 2024 reelection margin of 12 points in a district Donald Trump carried by 8 points, reflecting a Republican-leaning partisan baseline amid suburban St. Louis demographics. Despite Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting since April 2025 and leading challenger Fred Wellman's late-April FocalData survey claiming a generic Democratic edge of 4 points, traders discount these amid Wagner's fundraising strength and historical incumbent advantages in comparable races. The Missouri Supreme Court's May 12 approval of the 2026 congressional map solidifies district boundaries without altering MO-02's contours, with the Democratic primary set for August 4 as the next key event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,370종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 78.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent Ann Wagner's decisive 2024 reelection margin of 12 points in a district Donald Trump carried by 8 points, reflecting a Republican-leaning partisan baseline amid suburban St. Louis demographics. Despite Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting since April 2025 and leading challenger Fred Wellman's late-April FocalData survey claiming a generic Democratic edge of 4 points, traders discount these amid Wagner's fundraising strength and historical incumbent advantages in comparable races. The Missouri Supreme Court's May 12 approval of the 2026 congressional map solidifies district boundaries without altering MO-02's contours, with the Democratic primary set for August 4 as the next key event.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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