Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a structural edge in California's 13th congressional district, a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean that contributed to his narrow 2024 victory. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has further aligned the boundaries with Democratic-leaning voter registration patterns. The June 2, 2026, primary advanced Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln to the November general election, confirming the two-party matchup without altering the underlying district fundamentals. These elements, combined with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party to the sitting president, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late campaign dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
21%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$805 거래량
85%
Republican Party
$1,328 거래량
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a structural edge in California's 13th congressional district, a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean that contributed to his narrow 2024 victory. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has further aligned the boundaries with Democratic-leaning voter registration patterns. The June 2, 2026, primary advanced Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln to the November general election, confirming the two-party matchup without altering the underlying district fundamentals. These elements, combined with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party to the sitting president, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
거래량
$2,133종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a structural edge in California's 13th congressional district, a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean that contributed to his narrow 2024 victory. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has further aligned the boundaries with Democratic-leaning voter registration patterns. The June 2, 2026, primary advanced Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln to the November general election, confirming the two-party matchup without altering the underlying district fundamentals. These elements, combined with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party to the sitting president, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,133종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a structural edge in California's 13th congressional district, a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean that contributed to his narrow 2024 victory. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has further aligned the boundaries with Democratic-leaning voter registration patterns. The June 2, 2026, primary advanced Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln to the November general election, confirming the two-party matchup without altering the underlying district fundamentals. These elements, combined with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party to the sitting president, underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late campaign dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문