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By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?

Market icon

By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?

20-30% 100.0%

<0 <1%

0-10% <1%

10-20% <1%

Polymarket

$363,784 Vol.

20-30% 100.0%

<0 <1%

0-10% <1%

10-20% <1%

Polymarket

$363,784 Vol.

<0

$19,525 Vol.

No

0-10%

$33,579 Vol.

No

10-20%

$14,184 Vol.

No

20-30%

$164,785 Vol.

Yes

30-40%

$105,775 Vol.

No

40%+

$25,937 Vol.

No

Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implements congressional redistricting is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 4, 2025 statewide ballot—including any deadline set or modified by the statute calling that special election—no qualifying legislatively referred measure has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
볼륨
$363,784
종료일
Nov 4, 2025
생성일
Sep 22, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implements congressional redistricting is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 4, 2025 statewide ballot—including any deadline set or modified by the statute calling that special election—no qualifying legislatively referred measure has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

제안된 결과: No

이의 없음

최종 결과: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20-30%" at 100%, followed by "<0" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?" has generated $363.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?" is "20-30%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<0" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "By what margin will the California redistricting referendum pass?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.