Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, mirroring March's steady 4.3% Bureau of Labor Statistics print—down slightly from February's 4.4% and paired with a robust +178,000 nonfarm payroll rebound that eased prior softening fears. Mixed leading indicators fuel the fragmented odds: weekly initial jobless claims dipped to 207,000 (week ending April 11) after an early-month 219,000 spike, while ADP's preliminary private payrolls averaged +55,000 weekly through early April, signaling modest resilience amid low labor force participation near 62%. Closely contested 4.4% (20.5%) and 4.2% (19.0%) outcomes hinge on the May 2 nonfarm payrolls release; sustained claims stability favors no change, but hiring deceleration could push rates higher toward 4.5% or beyond.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4.3% 34%
4.4% 21%
4.2% 20%
4.5% 14%
$20,835 거래량
$20,835 거래량
2026.05.08
3.9% 이하
3%
4.0%
3%
4.1%
5%
4.2%
20%
4.3%
34%
4.4%
21%
4.5%
14%
4.6%
4%
4.7% 이상
3%
4.3% 34%
4.4% 21%
4.2% 20%
4.5% 14%
$20,835 거래량
$20,835 거래량
2026.05.08
3.9% 이하
$2,231 거래량
3%
4.0%
$2,106 거래량
3%
4.1%
$1,637 거래량
5%
4.2%
$1,963 거래량
20%
4.3%
$2,033 거래량
34%
4.4%
$5,526 거래량
21%
4.5%
$1,017 거래량
14%
4.6%
$1,325 거래량
4%
4.7% 이상
$2,997 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, mirroring March's steady 4.3% Bureau of Labor Statistics print—down slightly from February's 4.4% and paired with a robust +178,000 nonfarm payroll rebound that eased prior softening fears. Mixed leading indicators fuel the fragmented odds: weekly initial jobless claims dipped to 207,000 (week ending April 11) after an early-month 219,000 spike, while ADP's preliminary private payrolls averaged +55,000 weekly through early April, signaling modest resilience amid low labor force participation near 62%. Closely contested 4.4% (20.5%) and 4.2% (19.0%) outcomes hinge on the May 2 nonfarm payrolls release; sustained claims stability favors no change, but hiring deceleration could push rates higher toward 4.5% or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
거래량
$20,835종료일
2026.05.08마켓 개설일
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, mirroring March's steady 4.3% Bureau of Labor Statistics print—down slightly from February's 4.4% and paired with a robust +178,000 nonfarm payroll rebound that eased prior softening fears. Mixed leading indicators fuel the fragmented odds: weekly initial jobless claims dipped to 207,000 (week ending April 11) after an early-month 219,000 spike, while ADP's preliminary private payrolls averaged +55,000 weekly through early April, signaling modest resilience amid low labor force participation near 62%. Closely contested 4.4% (20.5%) and 4.2% (19.0%) outcomes hinge on the May 2 nonfarm payrolls release; sustained claims stability favors no change, but hiring deceleration could push rates higher toward 4.5% or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$20,835종료일
2026.05.08마켓 개설일
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, mirroring March's steady 4.3% Bureau of Labor Statistics print—down slightly from February's 4.4% and paired with a robust +178,000 nonfarm payroll rebound that eased prior softening fears. Mixed leading indicators fuel the fragmented odds: weekly initial jobless claims dipped to 207,000 (week ending April 11) after an early-month 219,000 spike, while ADP's preliminary private payrolls averaged +55,000 weekly through early April, signaling modest resilience amid low labor force participation near 62%. Closely contested 4.4% (20.5%) and 4.2% (19.0%) outcomes hinge on the May 2 nonfarm payrolls release; sustained claims stability favors no change, but hiring deceleration could push rates higher toward 4.5% or beyond.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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