Mary Peltola leads trader consensus in the Alaska Senate race due to consistent polling advantages and a fundraising edge over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Multiple Alaska Survey Research surveys from March through May showed her ahead by 5 to 7 points among likely voters, while her first-quarter haul reached nearly $9 million—more than four times Sullivan’s total. Alaska’s August nonpartisan primary and November ranked-choice general election introduce strategic complexity that traders factor into the current split. The recent qualification of another candidate named Dan Sullivan for the primary ballot has prompted accusations of voter confusion from the incumbent, further shaping assessments of the contest’s trajectory ahead of the August 18 primary.