With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트130m+ 44%
<85m 19.2%
115-120m 15%
125-130m 15%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
<85m
19%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
1%
100-105m
4%
105-110m
6%
110-115m
13%
115-120m
15%
120-125m
34%
125-130m
21%
130m+
30%
130m+ 44%
<85m 19.2%
115-120m 15%
125-130m 15%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
<85m
$386 거래량
19%
85-90m
$419 거래량
<1%
90-95m
$1,552 거래량
1%
95-100m
$269 거래량
1%
100-105m
$809 거래량
4%
105-110m
$436 거래량
6%
110-115m
$549 거래량
13%
115-120m
$1,081 거래량
15%
120-125m
$408 거래량
34%
125-130m
$1,204 거래량
21%
130m+
$318 거래량
30%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
거래량
$7,430종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
거래량
$7,430종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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