7月4日 予測とオッズ

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like 7月4日.

Polymarket currently hosts 8 active markets for 7月4日 that lets you track or trade on predictions like "Trump approval rating on July 4?". Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $7.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like "Will Joey Chestnut win Nathan's Famous Hot Dog 2025? ". You buy shares in "yes" or "no" outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that's a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like "Will Elon Musk create a new political party by...?," you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is "Will Elon Musk create a new political party by...?," where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on 7月4日 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket's accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for 7月4日 shift in real-time. It's a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like "Will Elon Musk create a new political party by...?" without ever needing to place a trade.

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the 7月4日 prediction markets, and when you're ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the "Rules" section on any individual market page like "Trump approval rating on July 4?," to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.