Traders' overwhelming consensus for "No" on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 stems from stalled RSF offensives in South Kordofan, where Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintain firm control of the provincial capital despite the broader civil war. No major RSF military actions or territorial gains near Kadugli have occurred in the past 30 days, with RSF troops focused on consolidating Darfur and Khartoum frontlines amid logistical strains and supply shortages. SAF reinforcements and the area's rugged terrain further solidify defenses. A dramatic escalation, such as surprise airstrikes or allied militia support, could theoretically alter odds, but current military stalemate renders capture before the deadline exceedingly unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Traders' overwhelming consensus for "No" on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 stems from stalled RSF offensives in South Kordofan, where Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintain firm control of the provincial capital despite the broader civil war. No major RSF military actions or territorial gains near Kadugli have occurred in the past 30 days, with RSF troops focused on consolidating Darfur and Khartoum frontlines amid logistical strains and supply shortages. SAF reinforcements and the area's rugged terrain further solidify defenses. A dramatic escalation, such as surprise airstrikes or allied militia support, could theoretically alter odds, but current military stalemate renders capture before the deadline exceedingly unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
音量
$1,381終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Traders' overwhelming consensus for "No" on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 stems from stalled RSF offensives in South Kordofan, where Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintain firm control of the provincial capital despite the broader civil war. No major RSF military actions or territorial gains near Kadugli have occurred in the past 30 days, with RSF troops focused on consolidating Darfur and Khartoum frontlines amid logistical strains and supply shortages. SAF reinforcements and the area's rugged terrain further solidify defenses. A dramatic escalation, such as surprise airstrikes or allied militia support, could theoretically alter odds, but current military stalemate renders capture before the deadline exceedingly unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
音量
$1,381終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' overwhelming consensus for "No" on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 stems from stalled RSF offensives in South Kordofan, where Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintain firm control of the provincial capital despite the broader civil war. No major RSF military actions or territorial gains near Kadugli have occurred in the past 30 days, with RSF troops focused on consolidating Darfur and Khartoum frontlines amid logistical strains and supply shortages. SAF reinforcements and the area's rugged terrain further solidify defenses. A dramatic escalation, such as surprise airstrikes or allied militia support, could theoretically alter odds, but current military stalemate renders capture before the deadline exceedingly unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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