Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.2% implied probability for NewJeans performing live by March 31, driven primarily by their ongoing contract dispute with ADOR and HYBE, which has effectively paused all group activities since their last stage at the 2024 MAMA Awards in November. The members' recent certify letter demanding contract termination—rejected by ADOR—has deepened the rift, with no comeback announcements, new music, or tour dates on the horizon amid legal battles. K-pop industry precedents show such feuds often sideline acts for months, reinforcing trader confidence. Realistic upsets remain slim: a surprise settlement or court ruling enabling a quick stage, though timelines make this improbable before Q2.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NewJeansは3月31日までに再びパフォーマンスしますか?
NewJeansは3月31日までに再びパフォーマンスしますか?
はい
はい
Prerecorded performances aired within the market's timeframe that were filmed earlier will not count. Solo or sub-unit performances will not count. Dance practices or behind-the-scenes content do not qualify as performances for this market.
The resolution source will be official announcements from NewJeans (including verified social media) and ADOR, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日: Nov 13, 2025, 4:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Prerecorded performances aired within the market's timeframe that were filmed earlier will not count. Solo or sub-unit performances will not count. Dance practices or behind-the-scenes content do not qualify as performances for this market.
The resolution source will be official announcements from NewJeans (including verified social media) and ADOR, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.2% implied probability for NewJeans performing live by March 31, driven primarily by their ongoing contract dispute with ADOR and HYBE, which has effectively paused all group activities since their last stage at the 2024 MAMA Awards in November. The members' recent certify letter demanding contract termination—rejected by ADOR—has deepened the rift, with no comeback announcements, new music, or tour dates on the horizon amid legal battles. K-pop industry precedents show such feuds often sideline acts for months, reinforcing trader confidence. Realistic upsets remain slim: a surprise settlement or court ruling enabling a quick stage, though timelines make this improbable before Q2.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問