Recent statewide polls over the past week show Democratic incumbents strengthening their positions in the core four battleground Senate races—Jon Tester in Montana leading by 4–7 points, Sherrod Brown in Ohio up 6–10 points, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania holding a slim edge, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada competitive ahead. These trends, reinforced by incumbent name recognition, superior fundraising, and steady early voting turnout favoring Democrats in swing states, underpin trader consensus pricing a 76% implied probability of Democrats sweeping all four. While historical polling accuracy supports this positioning, the races remain tight with potential for shifts from October surprises, differential turnout, or national coattails ahead of the November 5 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Recent statewide polls over the past week show Democratic incumbents strengthening their positions in the core four battleground Senate races—Jon Tester in Montana leading by 4–7 points, Sherrod Brown in Ohio up 6–10 points, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania holding a slim edge, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada competitive ahead. These trends, reinforced by incumbent name recognition, superior fundraising, and steady early voting turnout favoring Democrats in swing states, underpin trader consensus pricing a 76% implied probability of Democrats sweeping all four. While historical polling accuracy supports this positioning, the races remain tight with potential for shifts from October surprises, differential turnout, or national coattails ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Recent statewide polls over the past week show Democratic incumbents strengthening their positions in the core four battleground Senate races—Jon Tester in Montana leading by 4–7 points, Sherrod Brown in Ohio up 6–10 points, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania holding a slim edge, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada competitive ahead. These trends, reinforced by incumbent name recognition, superior fundraising, and steady early voting turnout favoring Democrats in swing states, underpin trader consensus pricing a 76% implied probability of Democrats sweeping all four. While historical polling accuracy supports this positioning, the races remain tight with potential for shifts from October surprises, differential turnout, or national coattails ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statewide polls over the past week show Democratic incumbents strengthening their positions in the core four battleground Senate races—Jon Tester in Montana leading by 4–7 points, Sherrod Brown in Ohio up 6–10 points, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania holding a slim edge, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada competitive ahead. These trends, reinforced by incumbent name recognition, superior fundraising, and steady early voting turnout favoring Democrats in swing states, underpin trader consensus pricing a 76% implied probability of Democrats sweeping all four. While historical polling accuracy supports this positioning, the races remain tight with potential for shifts from October surprises, differential turnout, or national coattails ahead of the November 5 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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