Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Clavicular becoming Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31st, driven by the complete absence of any verified candidacy or succession momentum for this figure amid Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's ongoing leadership. No official announcements, Assembly of Experts deliberations, or credible reports from Iranian state media position Clavicular—a non-entity in clerical hierarchies—as a frontrunner, with historical patterns favoring established insiders like President Pezeshkian or top ayatollahs. Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. election ripple effects and regional conflicts, have not triggered leadership shifts. Realistic upsets remain negligible: only an unforeseen Khamenei health crisis combined with lightning-fast appointment of an obscure outsider could pivot odds, though precedent shows months-long processes post-vacancy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日鎖骨は3月31日までにイランの次期最高指導者になるか？
鎖骨は3月31日までにイランの次期最高指導者になるか？
はい
$1,078,537 Vol.
$1,078,537 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$1,078,537 Vol.
$1,078,537 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
音量
$1,078,537終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,078,537終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Clavicular becoming Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31st, driven by the complete absence of any verified candidacy or succession momentum for this figure amid Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's ongoing leadership. No official announcements, Assembly of Experts deliberations, or credible reports from Iranian state media position Clavicular—a non-entity in clerical hierarchies—as a frontrunner, with historical patterns favoring established insiders like President Pezeshkian or top ayatollahs. Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. election ripple effects and regional conflicts, have not triggered leadership shifts. Realistic upsets remain negligible: only an unforeseen Khamenei health crisis combined with lightning-fast appointment of an obscure outsider could pivot odds, though precedent shows months-long processes post-vacancy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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