Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs "No" at 100% implied probability for Clavicular becoming Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31, driven by the stark reality that no credible figure by that name exists in the tightly controlled clerical hierarchy. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, continues to lead with recent public addresses signaling stability amid health rumors, while succession rumors swirl around vetted insiders like his son Mojtaba or Assembly of Experts members—none matching Clavicular. The opaque, consensus-based selection process by the Assembly precludes unknowns, especially with no verified reports or cultural buzz elevating such a non-entity. An upset would demand Khamenei's abrupt death and a wildly anomalous pick, defying decades of regime continuity patterns, though traders price this near-zero given the fast-approaching deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日鎖骨は3月31日までにイランの次期最高指導者になるか？
鎖骨は3月31日までにイランの次期最高指導者になるか？
はい
$1,078,537 Vol.
$1,078,537 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$1,078,537 Vol.
$1,078,537 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
音量
$1,078,537終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,078,537終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs "No" at 100% implied probability for Clavicular becoming Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31, driven by the stark reality that no credible figure by that name exists in the tightly controlled clerical hierarchy. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, continues to lead with recent public addresses signaling stability amid health rumors, while succession rumors swirl around vetted insiders like his son Mojtaba or Assembly of Experts members—none matching Clavicular. The opaque, consensus-based selection process by the Assembly precludes unknowns, especially with no verified reports or cultural buzz elevating such a non-entity. An upset would demand Khamenei's abrupt death and a wildly anomalous pick, defying decades of regime continuity patterns, though traders price this near-zero given the fast-approaching deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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