Trader consensus heavily favors Ilia Topuria at 59% implied probability to hold the UFC lightweight title through year-end, anchored by his dominant first-round knockout claim of the belt late 2025 and upcoming unification main event against two-time interim champion Justin Gaethje on June 14 at UFC White House in Washington DC—announced March 8 amid Topuria's resolved early-2026 personal hiatus. Arman Tsarukyan's 25% reflects his #2 ranking, unbeaten streak capped by November's decision win over Dan Hooker, and recent March 11 submission grappling victory over Muhammad Mokaev, fueling title shot talks for September-October. Charles Oliveira (13.5%) gains from veteran finishing threat and UFC 326 showing versus Max Holloway, while Gaethje (12.8%) leverages knockout power from his interim title defense over Paddy Pimblett, though unification poses stylistic risks against Topuria's striking edge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日イリア・トプリア 57%
アルマン・ツァルキャーン 26%
ジャスティン・ゲイジー 17.8%
チャールズ・オリベイラ 13.5%
$15,513 Vol.
$15,513 Vol.
イリア・トプリア
57%
アルマン・ツァルキャーン
25%
チャールズ・オリベイラ
13%
マックス・ホロウェイ
4%
ジャスティン・ゲイジー
13%
パディ・ピンブレット
1%
ダン・フッカー
1%
マテウシュ・ガムロット
<1%
ブノワ・サン・ドニ
1%
ラファエル・フィジエフ
1%
レナート・モイカノ
<1%
イリア・トプリア 57%
アルマン・ツァルキャーン 26%
ジャスティン・ゲイジー 17.8%
チャールズ・オリベイラ 13.5%
$15,513 Vol.
$15,513 Vol.
イリア・トプリア
57%
アルマン・ツァルキャーン
25%
チャールズ・オリベイラ
13%
マックス・ホロウェイ
4%
ジャスティン・ゲイジー
13%
パディ・ピンブレット
1%
ダン・フッカー
1%
マテウシュ・ガムロット
<1%
ブノワ・サン・ドニ
1%
ラファエル・フィジエフ
1%
レナート・モイカノ
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Ilia Topuria at 59% implied probability to hold the UFC lightweight title through year-end, anchored by his dominant first-round knockout claim of the belt late 2025 and upcoming unification main event against two-time interim champion Justin Gaethje on June 14 at UFC White House in Washington DC—announced March 8 amid Topuria's resolved early-2026 personal hiatus. Arman Tsarukyan's 25% reflects his #2 ranking, unbeaten streak capped by November's decision win over Dan Hooker, and recent March 11 submission grappling victory over Muhammad Mokaev, fueling title shot talks for September-October. Charles Oliveira (13.5%) gains from veteran finishing threat and UFC 326 showing versus Max Holloway, while Gaethje (12.8%) leverages knockout power from his interim title defense over Paddy Pimblett, though unification poses stylistic risks against Topuria's striking edge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問