Joshua Van's recent flyweight title win via first-round injury TKO over defending champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323—where Pantoja appeared to break his arm—has fueled trader skepticism about the new champ's staying power, pricing him at only 25.5% to hold the belt through year-end despite current top rankings. Pantoja leads implied probabilities at 40.5% on expectations of a swift return and rematch, while undefeated contender Tatsuro Taira (34%) earned the next shot in a high-stakes UFC 327 main event on April 12 in Miami, showcasing his grappling edge. Manel Kape (33.5%) lurks as a striking threat amid recent contract disputes with Van, highlighting the division's depth and volatile contender picture with multiple realistic paths to gold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ジョシュア・ヴァン 50%
アレクサンドレ・パントージャ 32%
堀口恭司 5.0%
ティム・エリオット 2.6%
ジョシュア・ヴァン
26%
アレクサンドレ・パントージャ
41%
堀口恭司
5%
ティム・エリオット
3%
スティーブ・エルセグ
<1%
ブランドン・モレノ
<1%
ブランドン・ロイバル
<1%
アス・アルマバエフ
<1%
アミール・アルバジ
<1%
マネル・ケイプ
34%
平良達郎
34%
ジョシュア・ヴァン 50%
アレクサンドレ・パントージャ 32%
堀口恭司 5.0%
ティム・エリオット 2.6%
ジョシュア・ヴァン
26%
アレクサンドレ・パントージャ
41%
堀口恭司
5%
ティム・エリオット
3%
スティーブ・エルセグ
<1%
ブランドン・モレノ
<1%
ブランドン・ロイバル
<1%
アス・アルマバエフ
<1%
アミール・アルバジ
<1%
マネル・ケイプ
34%
平良達郎
34%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
マーケット開始日: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Joshua Van's recent flyweight title win via first-round injury TKO over defending champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323—where Pantoja appeared to break his arm—has fueled trader skepticism about the new champ's staying power, pricing him at only 25.5% to hold the belt through year-end despite current top rankings. Pantoja leads implied probabilities at 40.5% on expectations of a swift return and rematch, while undefeated contender Tatsuro Taira (34%) earned the next shot in a high-stakes UFC 327 main event on April 12 in Miami, showcasing his grappling edge. Manel Kape (33.5%) lurks as a striking threat amid recent contract disputes with Van, highlighting the division's depth and volatile contender picture with multiple realistic paths to gold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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