Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a sub-$5 million opening weekend for "They Will Kill You" at 95.5% implied probability, driven by Thursday previews grossing just $1 million—well below expectations for a New Line horror entry—and downward tracking revisions to $4-5 million amid fierce competition from Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary," which eyes a massive $45-53 million second-frame hold. Mixed critical reception, including Variety's harsh assessment of unfulfilled genre promises and a "déjà vu" narrative, has dampened buzz despite some positive fan reactions to Zazie Beetz's fierce performance in early screenings. Realistic upsets could stem from viral word-of-mouth or walk-up sales boosting Friday/Saturday if audience scores spike, though historical precedents for similar mid-budget horrors suggest limited upside before Sunday tallies lock in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日"They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office
"They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office
<5m 95.0%
5-6m 4.0%
6-7m <1%
7-8m <1%
$138,654 Vol.
$138,654 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<5m
95%
5-6m
4%
6-7m
1%
7-8m
1%
>8m
<1%
<5m 95.0%
5-6m 4.0%
6-7m <1%
7-8m <1%
$138,654 Vol.
$138,654 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<5m
$38,736 Vol.
95%
5-6m
$17,789 Vol.
4%
6-7m
$20,174 Vol.
1%
7-8m
$14,562 Vol.
1%
>8m
$47,511 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a sub-$5 million opening weekend for "They Will Kill You" at 95.5% implied probability, driven by Thursday previews grossing just $1 million—well below expectations for a New Line horror entry—and downward tracking revisions to $4-5 million amid fierce competition from Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary," which eyes a massive $45-53 million second-frame hold. Mixed critical reception, including Variety's harsh assessment of unfulfilled genre promises and a "déjà vu" narrative, has dampened buzz despite some positive fan reactions to Zazie Beetz's fierce performance in early screenings. Realistic upsets could stem from viral word-of-mouth or walk-up sales boosting Friday/Saturday if audience scores spike, though historical precedents for similar mid-budget horrors suggest limited upside before Sunday tallies lock in.
This market will resolve according to how much "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$138,654終了日
Mar 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a sub-$5 million opening weekend for "They Will Kill You" at 95.5% implied probability, driven by Thursday previews grossing just $1 million—well below expectations for a New Line horror entry—and downward tracking revisions to $4-5 million amid fierce competition from Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary," which eyes a massive $45-53 million second-frame hold. Mixed critical reception, including Variety's harsh assessment of unfulfilled genre promises and a "déjà vu" narrative, has dampened buzz despite some positive fan reactions to Zazie Beetz's fierce performance in early screenings. Realistic upsets could stem from viral word-of-mouth or walk-up sales boosting Friday/Saturday if audience scores spike, though historical precedents for similar mid-budget horrors suggest limited upside before Sunday tallies lock in.
This market will resolve according to how much "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$138,654終了日
Mar 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a sub-$5 million opening weekend for "They Will Kill You" at 95.5% implied probability, driven by Thursday previews grossing just $1 million—well below expectations for a New Line horror entry—and downward tracking revisions to $4-5 million amid fierce competition from Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary," which eyes a massive $45-53 million second-frame hold. Mixed critical reception, including Variety's harsh assessment of unfulfilled genre promises and a "déjà vu" narrative, has dampened buzz despite some positive fan reactions to Zazie Beetz's fierce performance in early screenings. Realistic upsets could stem from viral word-of-mouth or walk-up sales boosting Friday/Saturday if audience scores spike, though historical precedents for similar mid-budget horrors suggest limited upside before Sunday tallies lock in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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