Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<$360 50%
$360-$370 50%
>$450 47%
$420-$430 46%
新規
新規
2026/05/22
<$360
50%
$360-$370
50%
$370-$380
9%
$380-$390
8%
$390-$400
12%
$400-$410
16%
$410-$420
19%
$420-$430
46%
$430-$440
15%
$440-$450
13%
>$450
47%
<$360 50%
$360-$370 50%
>$450 47%
$420-$430 46%
新規
新規
2026/05/22
<$360
$0 Vol.
50%
$360-$370
$0 Vol.
50%
$370-$380
$0 Vol.
9%
$380-$390
$0 Vol.
8%
$390-$400
$0 Vol.
12%
$400-$410
$0 Vol.
16%
$410-$420
$0 Vol.
19%
$420-$430
$0 Vol.
46%
$430-$440
$0 Vol.
15%
$440-$450
$0 Vol.
13%
>$450
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/05/22マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$0終了日
2026/05/22マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ETMicrosoft shares have traded in a narrow 405-422 range since the April 29 fiscal Q3 earnings beat, where revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $82.9 billion and Azure accelerated 40%, yet guidance for $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditures sparked immediate selling. This high capex trajectory, driven by AI infrastructure needs, has kept implied probabilities evenly distributed across closing-price buckets for the week of May 18, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether recent support near 410 will hold or yield to renewed pressure from elevated spending. No major catalysts are scheduled before the May 21 ex-dividend date, leaving the outcome dependent on broader market sentiment and any follow-through from the post-earnings reset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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