Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.79 trillion reflects strong Azure revenue growth of 40-45% year-over-year and an AI business run rate exceeding $37 billion, fueled by Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption surpassing 30 million paid seats and commercial remaining performance obligations reaching $678 billion. These tailwinds are balanced against elevated capital expenditures, with FY27 Q1 guidance above $50 billion and calendar 2026 spend near $175 billion after accounting adjustments, compressing near-term free cash flow. Traders assign equal implied odds across market-cap brackets through year-end 2026 because the pace of AI capacity monetization, margin resilience, and any shifts in OpenAI-related exposure or broader tech valuations introduce meaningful uncertainty over the final months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.50兆ドル未満 0
2.50〜3.00兆ドル 0
3.00〜3.50兆ドル 0
3.50兆～4.00兆ドル 0
新規
新規
2026/12/31
2.50兆ドル未満
-
2.50〜3.00兆ドル
-
3.00〜3.50兆ドル
-
3.50兆～4.00兆ドル
-
4.00〜4.50兆ドル
-
4.50～5.00兆ドル
-
5兆ドル以上
-
2.50兆ドル未満 0
2.50〜3.00兆ドル 0
3.00〜3.50兆ドル 0
3.50兆～4.00兆ドル 0
新規
新規
2026/12/31
2.50兆ドル未満
$0 Vol.
-
2.50〜3.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
-
3.00〜3.50兆ドル
$0 Vol.
-
3.50兆～4.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
-
4.00〜4.50兆ドル
$0 Vol.
-
4.50～5.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
-
5兆ドル以上
$0 Vol.
-
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.79 trillion reflects strong Azure revenue growth of 40-45% year-over-year and an AI business run rate exceeding $37 billion, fueled by Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption surpassing 30 million paid seats and commercial remaining performance obligations reaching $678 billion. These tailwinds are balanced against elevated capital expenditures, with FY27 Q1 guidance above $50 billion and calendar 2026 spend near $175 billion after accounting adjustments, compressing near-term free cash flow. Traders assign equal implied odds across market-cap brackets through year-end 2026 because the pace of AI capacity monetization, margin resilience, and any shifts in OpenAI-related exposure or broader tech valuations introduce meaningful uncertainty over the final months.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.79 trillion reflects strong Azure revenue growth of 40-45% year-over-year and an AI business run rate exceeding $37 billion, fueled by Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption surpassing 30 million paid seats and commercial remaining performance obligations reaching $678 billion. These tailwinds are balanced against elevated capital expenditures, with FY27 Q1 guidance above $50 billion and calendar 2026 spend near $175 billion after accounting adjustments, compressing near-term free cash flow. Traders assign equal implied odds across market-cap brackets through year-end 2026 because the pace of AI capacity monetization, margin resilience, and any shifts in OpenAI-related exposure or broader tech valuations introduce meaningful uncertainty over the final months.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.79 trillion reflects strong Azure revenue growth of 40-45% year-over-year and an AI business run rate exceeding $37 billion, fueled by Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption surpassing 30 million paid seats and commercial remaining performance obligations reaching $678 billion. These tailwinds are balanced against elevated capital expenditures, with FY27 Q1 guidance above $50 billion and calendar 2026 spend near $175 billion after accounting adjustments, compressing near-term free cash flow. Traders assign equal implied odds across market-cap brackets through year-end 2026 because the pace of AI capacity monetization, margin resilience, and any shifts in OpenAI-related exposure or broader tech valuations introduce meaningful uncertainty over the final months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問